The Playoff is no longer a mere hypothetical for Cincinnati. The Bearcats are within the selection committee’s top four and only two rankings remain this year. Cincinnati’s new challenge is to stay in that top four.
Facing a decisively average East Carolina does not set the Bearcats up to further impress unless Cincinnati really has returned to the dynamic form it showed early in the season. If that's the case, Black Friday could be a long day for the Pirates.
Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. East Carolina on November 26, with kickoff set for 3:30 ET.
Cincinnati vs East Carolina odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Cincinnati opened as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday, and that jumped to -14.5 at some books within an hour. This spread fell back to -13.5 on Monday, but midweek moves left the Bearcats favored by at least two touchdowns across the board. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Cincinnati vs East Carolina predictions
Predictions made on 11/25/2021 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Cincinnati vs East Carolina game info
• Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
• Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Cincinnati vs East Carolina betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Cincinnati: Michael Young WR (Questionable), Cole Smith K (Questionable).
East Carolina: Jaquaez Powell OL (Questionable), Bailey Malovic OL (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with winning records, a group that not only includes last week’s win against SMU but also earlier in the season against Central Florida and at Notre Dame. The Bearcats have beaten the spread in those four games by an average of 16 points per game. The Over has hit in the last four meetings of this annual matchup. Find more NCAA betting trends for Cincinnati vs. East Carolina.
Cincinnati vs East Carolina picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
To quote from this exact section in last week’s preview of SMU vs. Cincinnati: “Until Cincinnati puts away another opponent with ease, it cannot be assumed the Bearcats are capable of it anymore.” Well, Cincinnati put away SMU with ease, winning by 34 and obviously covering the 10-point spread.
That does not restore all faith in the Bearcats, but it restores enough. The Mustangs have a decent rush defense, ranking No. 32 in EPA on rushes against, per cfb-graphs.com, yet Cincinnati ran for 249 yards and 6.1 yards per attempt last week for its best rushing performance since it averaged more than 8 yards per carry in consecutive weeks in mid-October. Those were also the weeks that inspired the initial faith in the Bearcats’ ability to run it up on opponents (pun not intended), beating Temple and Central Florida by a combined score of 108 to 24.
East Carolina’s greatest weakness? Indeed, its rush defense, which ranks No. 83 in the country in EPA on rushes against.
If Cincinnati has rediscovered its ground game, and it appears it has, then its never-doubted defense should take care of the rest against the Pirates.
Prediction: Cincinnati -14 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
No one is more uncomfortable putting this much faith in the Bearcats offense than this prognosticator after getting burned repeatedly by that unit throughout the latter half of October and the early half of November. But last week was not a flash in the pan. Cincinnati has shown the ability to blow right by a quality opponent, most notably in scoring 56 on Central Florida.
Now, the Bearcats have scored 45 and 48 in the last two weeks, and they should do so again.
While Cincinnati’s defense has never been the concern this year, it has also never been utterly dominant, giving up 16 points per game, a number that jumps to 18.4 if removing games against FCS-level Murray State and maybe-should-be-relegated Temple. Every other opponent has managed at least two scores against the Bearcats, which is all the Pirates should need to push this Over.
Prediction: Over 57.5 (-110)
Best bet
While the total does feel abnormally low, it is entirely contingent on Cincinnati’s offense. Meanwhile, the two-touchdown spread could be covered without another strong showing from Desmond Ridder & Co.
A 31-14 victory would not help the Bearcats’ Playoff case like a 45-14 result would, but it also wouldn't hurt it a la that 27-20 win at Navy in mid-October. If a 31-14 final score is seen as our baseline, with a blowout more likely than a nailbiter, then logically betting on Cincinnati to cover the spread is the best move. If the Bearcats are humming early, though, particularly on the ground, a live taste of the Over could also be warranted.
Pick: Cincinnati -14 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
