Cincinnati vs Louisville Prediction: Fenway Bowl Odds and Picks

The Wasabi Fenway Bowl between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Louisville Cardinals is one of the most interesting matchups this bowl season for a few reasons.

For starters, it’s a football game being played in historic Fenway Park in front of the Green Monster. But more importantly, it features one of the most unique bowl situations that I can remember.

Scott Satterfield, who was the head coach at Louisville this season, left his position to take the same job with, you guessed it, Cincinnati.

So, how do you handicap a game with two interim coaches, and two backup quarterbacks? I break down this unusual matchup and bring you my best bet in the Fenway Bowl's college football picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Louisville.

Cincinnati vs Louisville best odds

Cincinnati vs Louisville picks and predictions

OK. There is a lot to run down in this crazy-ass bowl game.

Let’s start with the coaching carousel. Long-sought-after Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell finally left for the Wisconsin job. And former Louisville head Satterfield saw the writing on the wall with rumors swirling about the Cardinals athletic department wanting to give alumni and Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm their top job (which ended up happening). So, he jumped at the opportunity to take over the Bearcats program.

But the head coaches aren’t the only ones missing from this matchup, as both Cincinnati Louisville will be without its offense and defensive coordinators as well. 

Then there are all the transfers and opt-outs. Louisville’s dynamic, dual-threat quarterback, Malik Cunningham, is preparing for the NFL Draft. The Cardinals will also be without running back Tiyon Evans and wide receiver Tyler Hudson, who led the team with 69 receptions and 1,034 yards.

Cincinnati’s situation on offense isn’t much better. Starting quarterback Ben Bryant is out with a foot injury, so are wideout Tre Tucker and tight end Josh Whyle, who accounted for 84 receptions and nearly 1,000 yards.

So, what does that all add up to? An Under of course. For me in particular, it’s the first-half Under. 

There could be an extended feeling-out process in this game with so many key players out and new faces calling plays. To me, that likely means more conservative play-calling while the interim coaches figure things out.

On top of that, while each side lost a couple of players to opt-outs and the transfer portal, this is a matchup of solid, and veteran defensive units. Cincinnati ranked sixth in the nation in opponent yards per play, while Louisville wasn’t too far behind, ranking 30th. 

Bet on this bowl to be less than thrilling, at least early on.

My best bet: Under 21.5 first half total (-110 at bet365)

Cincinnati vs Louisville spread analysis

The spread for the Fenway Bowl opened with Louisville as a 2-point favorite and the Cardinals have been faded slightly, moving the line down to 1.

Personally, I’m not sure how you could be confident betting either side in this matchup with so many variables and unknowns heading in. Interim coaches who won’t be at these programs after this game. Backup quarterbacks. The team that wins the turnover battle probably wins the game.

If I was forced to make a play, I would lean toward the underdog, for no other reason than I am getting a point or two. Basically, what I’m saying is stay away from the spread here.

Cincinnati vs Louisville Over/Under analysis

The number hit the board at 44.5 and the early money hit the Under, moving it down to the 42 range. While I’ve already broken down why I like the first-half Under, I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.

Evan Prater gets the start for Cincinnati in this game. He’s made two starts for the Bearcats this season. The first went fairly well, but that came against Temple, one of the sorriest programs in the country at the moment. The last came against top-ranked Group of Five team Tulane, and it did not go well, as Prater went just 10-26 for 102 yards and one interception. 

Meanwhile, Brock Domann gets the call for Louisville. He's started the Cardinals' last three games, but he’s completed just 56.5% of his passes, averaging 152.3 passing yards per game with two touchdowns and two picks. The Under went 3-0 in those games. 

With these quarterbacks and some solid defense, it would be somewhat stunning if the scoreboard workers in the Green Monster were very busy. 

Cincinnati vs Louisville betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in Cincinnati's last eight games overall and 4-0 in Louisville's last four non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Louisville.

Cincinnati vs Louisville game info

Cincinnati vs Louisville latest injuries

Cincinnati vs Louisville weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic