The storylines write themselves as Brian Kelly faces his old team, Notre Dame defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman opposes the team he coached a year ago, and Cincinnati offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock goes up against his old boss.
Notre Dame and Cincinnati both have College Football Playoff aspirations, understandably so given the state of their respective remaining schedules, but before they can start to dream that big, they will need to win this Top-10 matchup, where the Fighting Irish are slight college football betting home underdogs.
Both defenses lead the way, but the Bearcats have the luxury of the winningest active quarterback in college football. Will Desmond Ridder be enough to propel Cincinnati to its biggest win in program history?
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame on October 2, with kickoff set for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati vs Notre Dame odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Despite heading on the road, the Bearcats opened as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday. Through the week, that bounced between 2.5 points and 1.5, finally settling on the latter at the time of writing. The total saw equal movement, opening at 52 and ticking down a bit to 50.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Cincinnati vs Notre Dame picks
Picks made on 10/1/2021 at 4:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cincinnati vs Notre Dame game info
• Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IL
• Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Cincinnati vs Notre Dame betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Cincinnati: None to report.
Notre Dame: Kurt Hinish DT (Out), Jack Coan QB (Questionable), Tyler Buchner QB (Questionable), Michael Carmody LT (Questionable), Blake Fisher LT (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in Cincinnati's last five road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame.
Cincinnati vs Notre Dame predictions
Notre Dame +1.5 (-110)
This pick hinges on Irish quarterback Jack Coan’s health. After Coan suffered a lower left leg injury against Wisconsin last week, he took two more snaps, completing one pass. There did not appear to be any structural damage and head coach Brian Kelly referred to it as a soft-tissue injury after the game. By Thursday, Kelly was offering optimism about Coan’s chances of playing Saturday.
Without Coan, Notre Dame would rely on sophomore Drew Pyne and/or freshman Tyler Buchner. When facing a defense like Cincinnati’s, an unproven passer could be a recipe for disaster.
Coan, however, has shown himself to be relatively unflappable this season, most notably when he completed a game-winning, last-minute touchdown pass against Toledo — just one play after dislocating the middle finger of his throwing hand. Such heroics may not be necessary against the Bearcats, but if some version of grit is called for, the Irish know they can find it in Coan.
Cincinnati being favored makes sense: It has simply looked better than Notre Dame this season. But at some point, some credence needs to be given to the Irish's dominance at home, winning 26 straight — the second-longest active streak in the country (behind only Clemson).
A game with this tight of a spread — basically a pick’em for most intents and purposes — may obviously come down to one kick. Notre Dame fifth-year kicker Jonathan Doerer has hit clutch field goals — previously against No. 1 Clemson and even just last week against Wisconsin. He has made 74.1 percent of his career field goals, while his Cincinnati counterpart, Cole Smith, has made only 53.6 percent of his field-goal attempts.
Nothing about college kickers is simple, but sometimes the handicap can be as simple as deferring to the better kicker in a tight game.
Under 50.5 (-110)
Not to knock Smith too much, but his leg does not inspire much confidence, going only 1 for 3 on field goals this season. The Irish have held opponents to six touchdowns on 15 trips into the red zone, suggesting Smith may be a vital need for the Bearcats — and if he is going to miss a boot or two, then we all know that trends toward the Under cashing.
Notre Dame hit the Over last week only because Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz campaigned to be named the Irish MVP with his five turnovers, including two pick-sixes in the final moments. Otherwise, the lack of a Notre Dame run game — combined with the strong Irish defensive line shutting down any Badgers run game — made for an ideal recipe for the Under.
Both those factors will linger this week, while Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder has thrown only two interceptions this season, so he is less likely to hand out touchdowns to the Notre Dame linebackers corps a la Mertz.
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