Points might be hard to come by when the Auburn Tigers meet the Northwestern Wildcats in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, as the college football betting total of 43.5 is the second lowest this entire bowl season. But is that number high enough to still tempt total bettors to take the Under in this matchup?
We break down the college football odds with our best free picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Northwestern at the Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on Friday, January 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
Citrus Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful afternoon for football in Orlando. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-80s for game time. Bettors should also take note that there will be winds of 12-15 mph gusting towards the northern end zone. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Auburn: Brodarious Ham OL (Questionable), Anthony Schwartz WR (Out), Jamien Sherwood S (Out), Christian Tutt DB (Out).
Northwestern: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-0 in Auburn's last five games following a straight-up win and 5-1 in Northwestern's last six games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Auburn vs. Northwestern.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Pat Fitzgerald returned his team to the Big Ten Championship game just one year removed from a four-win season, and while Northwestern came up short against Ohio State, the Wildcats have been impressive (at least in their own way). So much so that there is a buzz surrounding Fitzgerald and a possible NFL job down the road. But right now, Fitzgerald is focused on Auburn.
It was another down year for the Tigers at 6-4, which led to Gus Malzahn getting canned. Interim head coach Kevin Steele is keeping the seat warm before newly hired head man Bryan Harsin takes over, but you can bet players like QB Bo Nix and RB Tank Bigsby will want to try and impress their new coach.
Nix has been infuriatingly inconsistent during his time at Auburn, showing flashes of fantastic play but his battles with accuracy have held the Tigers back. Auburn scored at least 29 points five times this season, but averaged just 17 points in the other five games. And that inconsistency won’t play well against Northwestern.
The Wildcats style ain’t pretty...but it has been effective. The defense is excellent, ranking 23rd in yards allowed and it feels like they never miss tackles, while the offense tries to grind things out and is opportunistic.
Unfortunately, that’s really all that can be said about the offense. They aren’t built to do anything else other than grind it out. Quarterback Peyton Ramsay threw just nine touchdowns compared to eight picks, and the running game went for just 3.8 yards per carry this season.
While the Northwestern defense is good, it gave Auburn the blueprint to beat it after watching Ohio State’s Trey Sermon rumble for 331 yards in the Big Ten title game. Bigsby (and his 6.0 yards per carry) is capable of repeating that and Bo Nix will do just enough to keep this close. Northwestern doesn’t usually blow teams out anyways, so getting more than a field goal with Auburn seems like the right play here.
PREDICTION: Auburn +3.5 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
The story of this game will be the total. As mentioned, this is the second-lowest total this bowl season, with only Army and West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl sitting lower.
And the total is low for good reason.
To reiterate, Northwestern’s offense is designed to grind out games and rushing for short amounts won’t deter the Wildcats from their game plan, and the Auburn defense is sneaky good, as despite the pass-happy offenses it faced in the SEC, the Tigers allowed just 23.7 ppg.
The Wildcats defense, on the other hand, gives up just 15.5 points per game, and while Nix can impress at times his inaccuracy will likely show against a defense this good. So, the strategy in this one will likely be to feed Bigbsy, which will further milk the clock.
On top of all that, the Under is a combined 15-3 for these two teams this season. Let’s not overthink this.
PREDICTION: Under 43.5 (-110)
Citrus Bowl: Auburn vs Northwestern Betting Card
- Aurburn +3.5 (-110)
- Under 43.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Citrus Bowl: Auburn vs. Northwestern picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on College Football Bowl Games?
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