Clemson vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks and Predictions: Red Zone Woes Haunt Irish

The last time the Clemson Tigers headed to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, the college football world was rewarded with a double-overtime instant classic. One can only hope Notre Dame is up to providing such entertainment against No. 4 Clemson once again, though the Irish have not played that well at home at any point yet this season.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Notre Dame on Saturday, November 5, with kickoff set for 7:30 ET.

Clemson vs Notre Dame best odds

Clemson vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Death, taxes, service-academy matchup Unders, and opponents scoring in the red zone against Notre Dame. That may sound like hyperbole, but the Irish have given up points on every single opposing possession inside the red zone this season, and on 17 of 20 of them (85%), they have allowed a touchdown.

That kind of porous defense when it matters most has come against a pile of otherwise lackluster opponents. Marshall scored on all four of its red-zone possessions against the Irish, two of them being touchdowns. That touchdown rate is about on par with the rest of the Herd’s season (14-of-27, 51.9%), but Marshall has otherwise scored on only 63% of its red-zone possessions. On the season, it ranks No. 128 in the country in the category. UNLV went 3-for-3 inside the 20 in South Bend, all three being touchdowns. Remove those, and the Rebels have scored touchdowns on 72% of their red-zone possessions.

BYU’s only foray that far down the field against Notre Dame resulted in seven points, something the Cougars have managed only 18 times on their other 31 red-zone possessions this season. Stanford had the same success against the Irish, but the Cardinal have only converted those drives into touchdowns 60% of the time against anyone else.

Maybe BYU and Stanford getting only one such drive apiece renders those sample sizes too small, but it underscores how much Notre Dame’s defense has struggled in the red zone.

On the other side of the ball, Clemson’s offense excels there. The Tigers rank No. 22 in the country with touchdowns on 71.79% of their red-zone possessions.

If (when) Clemson gets inside the 20 against the Irish, expect a touchdown to follow, probably every time. With that confidence, then the question becomes which Tiger to place an anytime touchdown bet on. With junior quarterback DJ Uiagalelei coming off an inconsistent performance in his last outing (and that’s putting it charitably), escaping Clemson’s passing game in this endeavor may be prudent.

That leaves either Uiagalelei himself or Tigers sophomore running back Will Shipley. The preceding paragraph’s lack of faith in Uiagalelei could foreshadow sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik taking over for him, rendering an anytime touchdown bet on Uiagalelei an undue risk.

And then there’s Shipley. He’s scored at least one touchdown in six of Clemson’s eight games, and his workload has been increasing of late. In the last two Tigers games, Shipley touched the ball a total of 56 times. Coming off an idle week, there’s no reason to expect that rate to fall.

Against Notre Dame’s wretched red-zone defense, that many touches should produce a touchdown, if not multiple.

My best bet: Will Shipley anytime touchdown (-170 at FanDuel)

Clemson vs Notre Dame spread analysis

Notre Dame has played up to its better opposition this season, handily beating two ranked foes in BYU and Syracuse (both coincidentally ranked at No. 16 when they met the Irish) as well as handing now-ranked North Carolina its only loss of the season in a romp. Not to mention, Notre Dame held up well in its season opener at Ohio State.

And the Irish have laid eggs against their lesser foes, falling to Marshall and Stanford, and struggling against Cal.

Clemson is in the former category, and the spread of 3.5 in favor of the Tigers banks on Notre Dame once again playing up to its competition.

Clemson, meanwhile, has covered the spread in three of its last four games, seemingly picking up steam as its season has gone along, despite Uiagalelei’s turnover-filled afternoon against Syracuse two weeks ago. It bears noting, that was the only game this season in which the Tigers have lost the turnover margin, officially -3 in the box score but more accurately -4 if acknowledging the Orange gifted a turnover late in a last-ditch attempt to pull off the upset. Failing to cover a two-score spread should probably be anticipated when coughing up possession four times.

Clemson vs Notre Dame Over/Under analysis

History looks at that 2020 double-overtime thriller as a high-scoring affair, the final score of 47-40 eliciting a field storming from Notre Dame’s small crowd, but that game was 33-33 heading into the extra periods, and even that was being generous to the Irish. They went 59 game minutes between offensive trips to the end zone, buoyed by a defensive touchdown and strong field-goal kicking.

Anyone looking at that final score and thinking this Saturday night will be filled with fireworks will be disappointed. A total of 44.5 should make that clear.

That said, Notre Dame’s red-zone defense alone could inspire faith in the Over.

To offer a live-betting strategy taken from last year’s national championship game: Alabama struggled in the red zone last season, scoring touchdowns on only 65.12% of its drives against SEC foes in 10 games, including both the SEC title game and the national championship against Georgia (28-of-43). That general struggle created a vague reason to bet the live Under whenever the Tide got deep into Bulldogs’ territory. Every one of Alabama’s five field goal attempts proved that reasoning valid.

The inverse of that may be true Saturday. The live metrics will not give Clemson seven expected points whenever it is in the red zone, but perhaps they should. Hitting live Overs as the Tigers crack the 20-yard line could be profitable.

Clemson vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

The Irish have won 27 straight regular-season games against ACC opponents, dating back to the 2016 season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Clemson vs. Notre Dame.

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