If Clemson’s reign over the ACC is actually going to end this season, the moment that six-year title run ends will likely come, for all intents and purposes, this weekend at Pittsburgh.
A win would also set up Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh for a Coastal division title, building their own two-game lead on that side of the conference. Maybe that pressure will be too much for the Panthers, or perhaps Clemson’s championship pedigree will show itself for the first time this season.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for the Clemson Tigers at Pittsburgh Panthers on October 23.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
After a summer in which lookahead lines favored the Tigers by 18.0 or 18.5 points, this week’s odds opened with Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog. That ticked down to an even field goal at points throughout the week, but largely bounced back to 3.5 before long.
The total opened at 47.5 points before dropping down to 46.5 briefly on Monday. It quickly jumped back up to 47.5 and then found rest at 48.0
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh picks
Picks made on 10/22/2021 at 3:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Clemson vs Pittsburgh game info
• Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Saturday, October 23, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Clemson vs Pittsburgh betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Clemson: Tyler Davis DT (Out), Bryan Bresee DL (Out), Will Shipley RB (Out), Frank Ladson WR (Questionable), E.J. Williams WR (Questionable), Braden Galloway TE (Questionable), Hunter Rayburn OL (Out), Walker Parks OL (Questionable), Fred Davis CB (Questionable), Joseph Ngata WR (Out)
Pittsburgh: Gavin Thomson WR (Questionable), A.J. Davis RB (Questionable), Rodney Hammond RB (Questionable), Grant Carrigan TE (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Clemson is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games, last covering a spread in the 2020 ACC championship game against Notre Dame, while Pittsburgh has gone 6-1 ATS in the same stretch, including 3-0 in its last three and 5-1 this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Clemson vs. Pittsburgh.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh predictions
Pittsburgh -3.5 (-110)
In something of a conference-alignment oddity, Clemson has never played at Pittsburgh. Heinz Field will assuredly welcome them with all of the Steel City’s charm.
The last time Pittsburgh had any thoughts of a Heisman, it was a longshot campaign backing Larry Fitzgerald. Pickett will have plenty of reason to show off in what may be his last high-profile chance to impress during the regular season.
And Clemson is, to put it bluntly, very much not good this year. It would be disingenuous to call the Tigers outright bad, but their offense, in particular, certainly looks that part.
All of which is to say, this spread is only so small because of the deference paid to Clemson’s six-year run and the remaining quality of its defense. But, as Pickett and Pittsburgh average 48.2 points per game, being held below 30 only once — a week ago when the Panthers very clearly coasted in their 28-7 win at Virginia Tech after leading 21-0 at halftime — the Tigers defense might need to score to keep this in any doubt.
Clemson has shown no sign of offensive life this year. It has yet to score more than two touchdowns in regulation against an FBS opponent. In its last two games, against Boston College and at Syracuse, the Tigers scored three touchdowns and kicked five field goals. By no means are either of those defenses bad. They are, in fact, slightly above average. But neither compares to Pittsburgh’s at all.
To find points, the Tigers will need an otherworldly performance from their defense. It is not likely to frazzle a fifth-year quarterback with 42 career starts and 21 touchdowns this year compared to only one interception.
Under 48.0 (-110)
Clemson’s defense may not frazzle Pickett, but it should at least slow him enough to protect this total. Pittsburgh’s offense is humming these days, converting 88.6 percent of its red-zone trips into points and averaging 6.82 yards per play. It will find successes — it probably would against any defense aside from Georgia’s.
But the Panthers will still struggle to erupt against the Tigers. While Clemson’s offense has become an embarrassment, its defense is still playing near playoff-caliber.
On the other side of the ball, well, how many different ways are there to insult the Tigers offense? It does not even average five yards per play. Removing the production against FCS-level South Carolina State drops Clemson’s average snap all the way down to 4.53 yards gained.
Even against South Carolina State, the Tigers averaged 6.72 yards per play. In other words, when playing down a level, Clemson’s offense was still less efficient than Pittsburgh’s has been all season.
The Tigers have reached the red zone 18 times in six games. Seven of those came against South Carolina State. Ignoring those seven successful trips, Clemson has turned 11 trips inside the 20 into six touchdowns.
These previews are not meant to be opuses, but a thousand more words could be sent pointing out how putrid the Tigers offense is.
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