Saturday sees a key ACC showdown as the Clemson Tigers travel to face the Pittsburgh Panthers, with both teams hoping to remain in the conference title race.
Clemson rebounded last week with a win at Virginia Tech, but the Tigers have struggled on offense at times the past two weeks. They’ll face a Panthers team with a big question at quarterback, and who needs a win and some help to reach the conference title game.
I break down the pivotal matchup in our Clemson vs. Pittsburgh predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh prediction and best bet
Who will win Clemson vs Pittsburgh?
Eli Holstein’s availability for Pitt is still up in the air as he’s yet to be cleared from concussion protocol, but whoever starts at quarterback will be operating behind a shaky offensive line that's been allowing far too many negative plays to ACC defenses.
Clemson has the better quarterback, a well-balanced offense, and a defense that gets stops on third downs. Pitt’s penalty issues and inability to consistently convert on third down will prevent it from pulling off the upset as Clemson keeps its ACC title hopes alive.
My best bet
Under 53.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It took a while, but Cade Klubnik has finally begun living up to the hype. After a rough sophomore season, the junior has rebounded to throw for nearly 2,300 yards with 24 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
One of the key reasons for Klubnik’s improvement this season is the run game. The Clemson Tigers ability to move the ball on the ground through Phil Mafah has opened up the play-action passing game, and Klubnik’s been deadly off the fake. In fact, 13 of his 24 passing touchdowns have come via play action, as he’s completed 63.3% of his throws for 933 yards and just one pick on 120 attempts.
But Klubnik has shown some regression the past few games, completing just 54.4% of his throws in November with a serious dip in his QBR. He also posted his second-lowest PFF passing grade last week despite throwing three touchdowns, as he completed just 16 of 35 attempts.
The Pittsburgh Panthers defense is going to be a true test for both Klubnik and the run game. The Panthers rank 18th in EPA/rush and average 8.4 tackles for loss in conference play, the most in the ACC. They're also ranked third in sacks per game with 3.8 and rank 17th nationally in sack rate on the season. And the Panthers have also surrendered only 19 chunk runs in five conference games.
The problem for Pitt is on the other side of the ball. Pitt’s QBR against ACC opponents has been the third-lowest in the conference, and Holstein will be a game-time decision after his second head injury of the season. Backup Nate Yarnell would be asked to make the biggest start of his career against a defense, allowing the 10th-lowest completion rate in college football.
Clemson’s defense is averaging 6.71 tackles for loss per conference outing, and the Panthers aren’t running the ball that well to begin with, averaging just 3.93 yards per carry in ACC games. Pitt also ranks 93rd in third-down success, a metric Clemson ranks eighth in nationally. Desmond Reid is an outstanding all-around back, but he’s not someone who breaks off big runs.
Pitt’s defense will cause some headaches for Clemson and an offense that likes to run the ball and control the clock, while the Tigers are going to make life difficult for a Panther offensive line that is missing multiple starters and is committing penalties at a high rate. I see this being a showdown dominated by two aggressive defenses, with points being at a premium. Take the Under to hit for the sixth time in Clemson’s last seven games.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 53.5
Clemson -9.5
Antonio Williams anytime touchdown
The spread of 11.5 is a bit too much for my taste, so we’re going to take the alternate spread of Clemson -9.5 instead. The Tigers have not been great offensively the past two weeks but found plays down the stretch to win at Virginia Tech by 10 points last week. They’ll do so again as Pittsburgh’s defense wears down from being put on the field repeatedly after short rest.
Pitt’s allowed just five passing touchdowns to ACC opponents, but three of those have come in the last two games. Klubnik and the Tigers have thrown 20 touchdown passes in seven ACC games, and Williams has been the recipient of five of them.
He leads all Tigers in targets and has the ability to break one after the catch against a Pitt secondary that has been hurt by big pass plays. Look for him to find the end zone at a solid price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Clemson vs Pittsburgh odds
Clemson vs Pittsburgh live odds
Clemson vs Pittsburgh opening odds
- Clemson vs. Pittsburgh spread: Pittsburgh +9.5 (-110)
- Clemson vs. Pittsburgh moneyline: Clemson (-350), Pittsburgh (+270)
- Clemson vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under: 54.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Clemson vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread of 11.5 has jumped two points from opening at 9.5 on Sunday. There could be more fluctuation once we get word on Pitt’s quarterback status
- The favorite has covered in the last three meetings between these teams. Clemson is just 2-3 ATS in its last five games this season, while Pitt is 1-3 ATS in its last four.
- The total has dropped a point since opening at 54.5 and is the lowest total for Clemson in five games. It’s also the lowest total of any game this season for Pitt.
- The Under is 4-1 in Pitt’s last five games, while Clemson has seen the Under hit in five of its last six.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
Pittsburgh has covered the 1H Spread in six of their last seven games at home (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs Pittsburgh.
Clemson vs Pittsburgh game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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