Not that any of the first-round College Football Playoff games will be terribly cold, but Austin will be nearly balmy on Saturday when the Clemson Tigers visit the Texas Longhorns. The temperatures in the 20s or 30s on Friday and Saturday can be factored into handicaps, but not in Texas with 60 degrees possible.
Nonetheless, my Clemson vs. Texas predictions expect a low-scoring game, one perhaps defined by nerves and mistakes as much as top-tier football. Kickoff comes at 4:00 ET on Saturday, December 21.
Clemson vs Texas predictions
Early spread lean
Clemson +11.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Texas Longhorns' offense broke at some point in the last month. A 2023 worry rose up again in the SEC championship game and cost the Longhorns just as it did twice last season. Now, they again face a stout defense.
On six scoring opportunities in regulation against Georgia two weeks ago, Texas attempted five field goals. Another drive was two yards short of statistically counting as a scoring opportunity, only to end in an interception. And in overtime, starting with a 1st-and-10 at the 25-yard line (15 yards into statistical scoring range), the Longhorns managed just a field goal.
Those botched chances pushed Texas to 1-of-8 on properly converting scoring opportunities in the SEC title game. This failure where it matters most is exactly what cost the Longhorns a year ago in the Red River Rivalry and in the College Football Playoff, so it is exceptionally alarming to see it arise anew at this point in the season.
This recurrence dashes any faith in Texas handling a two-score spread.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Texas looks to be reverting to mishandling scoring opportunities with a worrying frequency, Clemson’s greatest offensive strength is going to butt heads with the Longhorns’ defensive preference.
The Longhorns have the No. 2 passing defense in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, as well as the No. 5 defense in passing success rate against. Opponents fall behind the chains on 65.1% of dropbacks against Texas, a rate far beyond anything survivable.
That passing defensive excellence is a big part of why opponents run the ball 5.4% more often than an average team would in a given game state against Texas, the ninth-highest rate in the country.
The Tigers’ problem is going to be that they rely on the pass, dropping back 5.6% more often than an average team would in a given game state, No. 11 in the country. Either Clemson needs to do that less or suffer the consequences.
Furthermore, Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney assuredly knows he does not have the skill talent necessary to outrace the Longhorns. Clemson is likely to slow this game down and hope to prevail in the margins.
Clemson vs Texas live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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