Big 10 A.M. Saturday! No, that’s not a new branding for the early game on Fox. That’s just the reality facing the Rocky Mountains with Fox broadcasting Utah at Colorado in its 12 ET timeslot.
The logic is clear, Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes have been rating magnets for two years now, and Fox has emphasized the earlier slate as an attempt to bring in viewers before ESPN and ABC take over with the primetime dominance.
But, really? We are going to put a game at 10 a.m. local time on center stage? We are going to put a game with Playoff intrigue on at 10 a.m. local time?
Once again, TV ratings are prioritized over the quality of the product. Is there gambling value to be found there? Perhaps, but only if you are certain how a couple hundred 18- to 23-year-olds will react to an early wakeup. And anyone claiming certainty in that regard is lying to you.
Mostly, there is simply frustration to be found there.
But on to Week 12 …
College football betting news for Week 12
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine Playoff Implications
Why should Georgia be in the Playoff?
Assume the Bulldogs beat Tennessee this weekend, Georgia a 9.5- or 10-point favorite. The Bulldogs will then have notable wins against Tennessee and Texas, with losses to Alabama and Mississippi, each of the Tide and the Rebels with a record that should match Georgia’s.
It would be rather audacious to include the Bulldogs but leave out one of the 10-2 teams that beat them, right? But by ranking Georgia at No. 12 in the latest Playoff update, the selection committee has positioned the Bulldogs to do just that.
College Football 134 recaps Week 11 & previews Week 12, complete with a shared best bet & a lot of Colorado praise.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 12, 2024
Before tonight's committee rankings, I'd like to loudly say, Georgia should be out of the Playoff.
Spotify: https://t.co/sPlRmDV5ON
iTunes: https://t.co/JBbBAfmjab pic.twitter.com/szZVRsZomb
If Georgia wins this weekend, it will be a more notable win than either No. 10 Alabama or No. 11 Mississippi can claim was added to its résumé, setting up the Bulldogs to leapfrog them.
It shouldn’t, but this is the world we live in. As such, the matchup in Athens has win-and-in, lose-and-go-home implications for both Georgia and Tennessee.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
Holy line movement, Batman!
Kennesaw State opened as less than a two-touchdown underdog against Sam Houston State this weekend. And then the Owls did the unthinkable. They fired the only head coach they had ever had.
Yes, Kennesaw State is in the midst of an ugly 1-8 debut season at the FBS level. Yes, yours truly has made plenty of money this season fading the Owls in no small part because their offensive and defensive lines are so undersized. And yes, Brian Bohannon was probably going to be fired after the season.
But Kennesaw State found some reason to do so on Sunday and then muddied the waters by claiming Bohannon made the choice when all common sense, as well as Bohannon himself, said otherwise.
The spread climbed to -14.5 on Monday, then -15 on Thursday, and now -18.5 on Friday.
And it may not have climbed high enough.
Look past the tumult and the letdown. Look at the roster, from which 18 players have now entered the transfer portal, including three starting offensive linemen.
Sam Houston State is no powerhouse, but Kennesaw State is now broken. Three of its top-four pass-catchers have left the team. You think this offense is going to produce?
Nope.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Kennesaw State team total Under 12.5 (-112 at BetRivers)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
This is, in some parts, a bet on hilarity. All season we have expected Boise State to plow its way into the College Football Playoff. An unexpected loss to a rebuilding Mountain West program would be a heck of a stubbed toe.
This is, in some parts, a bet on an opposing coach. The Broncos run the ball 7.5% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, and with reason as they boast the No. 1 rush offense in terms of expected points added (EPA) per attempt. Who would know how to stop that better than former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo?
This is, in some part, a bet on fatigue. Look, these are just facts. Ashton Jeanty has taken 224 carries this season. Through the first six games of the year, he had 126 rush attempts at an average of 9.9 yards per carry. In the last three games, he has 98 rush attempts at an average of 5.0 yards per carry. He is still a force, but he is starting to wear down.
After often taking off entire second halves in the first half of the year, Jeanty has now played all four quarters of three games in three weeks, two of those being one-score victories.
San Jose State has a rush defense that cuts down on explosive plays, Jeanty’s specialty.
There is a path here to an upset, but let’s be conservative and enjoy the inflated spread.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: San Jose State +14.5 (-115 at FanDuel)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Tulane -7 at Navy (-110 at BetMGM as of Friday afternoon)
3:30 ET — Notre Dame -21.5 vs. Virginia (-110 at DraftKings)
8:00 ET — Tennessee +9.5 at Georgia (-110 at DraftKings)
Am I a good influence or bad influence on @Covers_Caley? Only Georgia and Tennessee can tell us. pic.twitter.com/Q5LMA4B3Z3
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 15, 2024
After Dark — BYU -2.5 vs. Kansas (-110 at FanDuel)
College Football 134 Tuesday recap
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Giving out the Missouri Team Total Under 14.5 might have seemed niche, but that number is now 13, so clearly there was value in that early-week choice.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
Saturday sneak peek
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Hawaii at Utah State? Have at ‘em. Wondering how to look at Baylor’s offense? If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
Don’t forget to mix in a water. Cold temperatures are subtle in their dehydration. Cheers.
Not intended for use in MA.
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