As a college football society, we owe a belated apology to Oklahoma, Texas, USC, and UCLA.
When the Pac-12 as we long knew it fell apart in real-time on Twitter, Oregon and Washington had the courtesy to pull that plug in early August. Credit Deion Sanders for understanding timing well enough to spark those moments before the season began.
The Pac-2, the Mountain West, and the AAC all need to knock it off right now. We have actual football to discuss, watch, and hopefully enjoy. They can go back to somehow deconstructing the MAC in February.
There are six months a year with little to no genuine college football conversation. Waste our time then.
Army offered a beautiful display of peak option offense on Thursday night. Rutgers should show what a suffocating defense can do on Friday night. Georgia heads to Alabama on Saturday night.
Let’s talk about our college football picks.
Realignment belongs in the spring and summer.
College football betting news for Week 5
- Genuine 2020s Implications
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Greater Than Hate
- Don't Bet on Rain, Only on Wind
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine 2020s Implications
Our friend Parker Fleming swung through “College Football 134” again this week, adding some chaos to the Covers podcast diving into every inch of the college football landscape, and he delivered a hot take that is only hot if not understood.
"College Football 134" also tilted into existential thoughts when @statsowar hopped in suggesting Georgia at Alabama is "one of the most consequential football games we will see in our lifetimes." pic.twitter.com/PN1udBo5v2
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2024
When Parker said this Georgia at Alabama game may be “one of the most consequential football games we see in our lifetimes,” he was thinking well past the 2024 College Football Playoff picture. We can all agree both these teams should make the first expanded 12-team Playoff, though we should not assume it as a certainty. The loser will have at least three top-15 matchups left ahead of it, two of them being on the road.
And no one should expect a three-loss team to reach the Playoff.
Regardless, look beyond the 2024 season.
If Georgia goes on the road and wins at Alabama this weekend, that will position the Bulldogs as the national title favorites looking to win their third championship in four seasons. Kirby Smart may have built an operation humming at the same efficient level that Nick Saban’s prime enjoyed. Nothing will have changed across the sport aside from the inevitable and dominant force moving to Athens from Tuscaloosa.
But if Alabama sets Georgia back, then perhaps Kalen DeBoer will have proven enough concept to be assured the SEC will be a multi-horse race for years to come.
That may all sound hyperbolic, but this sport is built more on narrative than we want to recognize. Narrative informs recruiting decisions and recruiting decisions make dynasties.
For the sake of all that is good and enjoyable in the world, for some semblance of parity, let alone for your best betting value this weekend, maybe you should be cheering for Alabama.
Is Georgia's offense trading on its past reputation? The 2024 numbers and eye test both think so. Going against a Kalen DeBoer offense, you don't want to be worrying about your own output.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2024
That worry got me onto the Alabama moneyline ... pic.twitter.com/UjZdGsx8O6
Genuine Playoff Implications
Aside from the headlining SEC tilt, know what game may impact Playoff odds the most this weekend?
Washington State vs. Boise State at 10 ET on FS1.
The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites, not to mention the frontrunners to claim the Group of Five entry into the Playoff. As of Friday afternoon, the next team in those odds is Liberty, but the Flames have lost most semblance of hope with the cancellation of their Saturday trip to Appalachian State thanks to Hurricane Helene. Even with the Mountaineers struggling, that was Liberty’s only chance at an impressive victory this season.
So more genuinely, the next team in those Playoff odds is the Cougars at +500.
Greater Than Hate
I spend too much time poking at corporate overlords and the public masses by calling the NFL some version of “the most sterile professional sports league in the world “corporate football” or, most accurately, “boring football.” It is an attempt at standing up to those around who overlook college football because they have never fallen in love with its absurdities, its chaos, its quirks.
Usually, I point out things like how beautiful a mustard bottle can look on the field at Tennessee or how mentioning a bare foot will get Oklahoma fans hot and bothered, but there is another piece of joy in this sport that does not get mentioned enough: Hate.
The NFL does not have dozens of games like the Backyard Brawl (West Virginia and Pittsburgh), the Civil War (Oregon and Oregon State), or 100 Miles of Hate (Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State). These are games where neighbors seeth at each other, where coworkers bicker come Monday, and where brothers go to different schools.
And then there is the greatest rivalry nickname in this sport.
“Greater Than Hate.”
Georgia State is a field-goal home favorite against Georgia Southern, an appropriate spread given the Panthers cut down on explosive pass plays, an Eagles’ need.
Shockingly, Georgia State has an adequate passing game this season — shocking considering Panthers’ head coach Dell McGee was hired only after spring practices had started and is a running backs coach by trade. That competent passing game may embolden a bet on Georgia State.
Know what?
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Georgia State -3 (-112 at DraftKings)🏈
Holding the edge in the air on both sides of the ball should give the home team enough benefit of the doubt.
Unloaded a frustration at the start of "College Football 134" today. Pod will be up soon.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 24, 2024
Let me rant here for now.
We have actual football games to discuss.
Let's ignore realignment nonsense. pic.twitter.com/8xW1F6imXx
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt ii.
Central Florida knows it needs to defend only one facet of Colorado’s offense. That is always an edge. The Buffaloes’ defense should know that, as well, but when they recognize how much the Knights intend to run, Deion Sanders’ wet grocery bags of a defensive line will have worry.
Central Florida runs more often than all but five other teams in the country, three of which are the service academies. The Knights succeed on 57.4% of their rushes, staying ahead of the chains when running the ball more often than any other team in the country.
Colorado is not equipped to stand up to that kind of efficient rushing attack, and without a balanced offense, the Buffaloes can be stopped too often. Only 36.8% of their possession turn into quality drives, No. 90 in the country.
Two touchdowns may seem hefty, but once the Knights are up, guess what they will do? They’ll keep running and doing so successfully.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Central Florida -14 (-108 at BetRivers)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Indiana -7 vs. Maryland (-105 at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon), one of the first bets of the week.
3:30 ET — Eastern Michigan -14 vs. Kent State (-105 at Caesars)
... plays Kent State this week.https://t.co/s5aLgRILLl
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 24, 2024
7:30 ET — Georgia vs. Alabama first half Under 24 (-110 at Caesars)
But if hopping on the Alabama moneyline is too bold a thought for your taste, @Covers_Caley is thinking of earlier value, a bit of a Georgia trend: pic.twitter.com/nXBKhniEf7
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2024
After Dark — Utah -8.5 vs. Arizona (-105 at BetMGM)
Don’t Bet on Rain, Only on Wind
First of all, everyone do your best to be safe amid severe weather. Hurricanes are not something to mess around with … unless you are Georgia Tech in the final minute and Mario Cristobal is on the other sideline. Hurricane Helene looks like a strong one.
Secondly, as that storm system sends weather throughout the country, don't be coaxed into an Under bet because a game will be saturated with rain. Modern fields, gloves, and footballs have largely rendered rain a moot point. Not always, but the vast majority of the time.
Do be coaxed into an Under bet because the wind will be consistently over 15 miles per hour at the stadium. Somehow that is the universally accepted magic number. At that point, the passing and kicking games are adversely impacted in a way of note.
That said, do not think you are the first person to notice the weather. Lines have moved and the value may be gone. Finding the specific matchup on the Covers scores & matchups page will give you a chance to check line movement. If the total has crossed multiple key numbers (41, 42, 45, 48, 49, etc.), then recognize the opportunity has already passed by.
File away this lesson for next time and maybe beat the line movement. Even a missed opportunity can provide you with future value.
College Football 134 Tuesday recap + Saturday sneak peek
Tuesday recap header
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Take that Alabama moneyline, for example. On Tuesday, Douglas saw that as a best bet at +110 and predicted it would be a pick’em by Saturday. The worst has happened: Douglas was right.
Me, on Tuesday: "Alabama +110 moneyline. I won't be shocked if by Saturday that is a pick'em."
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 27, 2024
Don't look now ... pic.twitter.com/0j8M9pic2J
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
Saturday sneak peek header
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about James Madison vs. Ball State? Have at ‘em. Wondering about Tobacco Road? Great.
If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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