College football betting isn't really college football betting without the SEC. But finally! The SEC returns to action this weekend and that means the return of a Triple Option tradition.
Like rubbing Howard’s Rock or the Best Damn Band in the Land, betting Alabama in its first game of the season has joined the list of great college football traditions...at least for college football bettors. The Crimson Tide open as significant road favorites over Missouri, and we’ll explain why you don’t need to fear the big number.
The Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 4.
NCAA Football Picks and Predictions for Week 4
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Missouri Tigers
Anyone who is a regular reader of this column knows the end game here. Go bet Alabama -27.5. For those who still need some convincing, here you go.
No one, and I mean literally no one, gets his team more prepared to start a season than Nick Saban. Alabama is 13-0 straight up and 11-1 ATS in season openers since Saban took over the reins of the program back in 2007 (there was one unlined game against Western Carolina in 2007). And for the most part, these games haven’t been close.
Bama has averaged 40.7 points per game in those opening contests, with an average margin of victory of 29.7 points per game. That includes last year’s 42-3 thumping of Duke.
This season the Crimson Tide open on the road against Missouri and the Tigers are going through a transition this season. They have brought in former Appalachian State head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. He’ll be trying to work in his new offense, rebuild an offensive line and he still hasn’t named a starting quarterback (it will be either TCU transfer Shawn Robinson or freshman Connor Bazelak).
Bama, on the other hand, comes into this year with a chip on its shoulder, which is hard to imagine after an 11-2 season, but those are the expectations in Tuscaloosa.
The Tide have a competent quarterback in Mac Jones, who is working with some deadly targets on the outside, while Najee Harris and Brian Robinson will rumble behind another offensive line full of potential All-Americans. This team is hungry and motivated after missing the College Football Playoff for the first time since it’s inception.
Bama by a lot. Roll Tide.
PREDICTION: Alabama -27.5 (-110)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Syracuse Orange
Let me get this out of the way right away: I was dead wrong about UCF. The Knights in no way needed a warmup and that offense looks as dangerous as ever. More than anything, I probably overvalued Georgia Tech’s road win over Florida State (which probably says more about the Seminoles than anything else).
While the Yellow Jackets ended up losing last week’s game to UCF 49-21, you can make the case they played pretty well for three quarters, as it was a one-score game in the fourth quarter until the wheels fell off and UCF put up three straight scores.
But do you know who isn’t UCF? Syracuse. The Orange offense has looked putrid through two games and has scored a total of just 16 points. It hasn’t mattered who is under center — Tommy DeVito or Rex Culpepper — Syracuse is completing just 47.8 percent of its passes.
However, the problems lie with the Orange offensive line, which has already given up 14 sacks this season and isn’t creating any hole for the run game, limiting it to 1.7 yards per carry. That's bad news considering Tech has also recorded five sacks and five turnovers this season.
The Cuse defense, on the other hand, has shown a bit of fight. The Orange held UNC to 10 points for the first three quarters before imploding in the fourth, and followed that up by limiting Pitt to 21 points and 4.3 yards per play. They’re going up against a freshman quarterback who is still getting used to a new offense, making this total too high.
PREDICTION: Under 52.5 (-110)
Iowa State Cyclones vs TCU Horned Frogs
I am expecting a nice bounce back from Iowa State, and QB Brock Purdy, after getting upset 31-14 as 13.5-point favorites in their opener against Louisiana. Purdy, who was coming off a fantastic 2019 season, had just an awful game, going just 16-of-35 for 145 yards, so it’s unlikely he can be any worse.
He goes against a TCU defense that was one of the best in the Big 12 in 2019, but they had their hands full with Purdy last season. The Cyclones QB went 19-of-24 for 245 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding 102 yards and two more scores on the ground.
The Iowa State defense is also likely seething after seeing the Ragin’ Cajuns put up 31 points, but only being responsible for 14 of them. Now, they face a TCU team that has yet to play a game, due to COVID-19 cancellations, and hasn’t made a firm decision at the quarterback position. Georgia transfer Matthew Downing will start, but last year’s starter Max Duggan will be available after being identified with a heart condition earlier in the offseason.
The Cyclones have had two weeks to stew about that loss and have covered the spread in four straight meetings against TCU, while the Horned Frogs are just 5-13 ATS against Big 12 opponents over the last two seasons. They make it five straight on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Iowa State -2.5 (-110)
Last week's NCAAF record: 0-3
Season to date: 2-4
Triple Option NCAA football betting card for Week 4
- Alabama -27 (-110)
- Georgia Tech-Syracuse Under 52.5 (-110)
- Iowa State -2.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NCAA Triple Option picks, you could win $59.58 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on college football?
You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.
