College Football Week 10 Odds: The Outcomes and Trends You Should and Shouldn't React To

This is the longest college football season in history. The 12-team College Football Playoff assured us of that more than the calendar quirk adding an idle week to the season did.

Future years will be just as long in terms of games. Four teams will play up to 16 games. Two will play up to 17.

Depth is more important than ever, particularly for national title contenders. In other words, depth is more important than ever in the top half of the SEC. And there may be one particular piece of depth that needs to be more appreciated than ever: A solid backup quarterback.

Be it because of injury (Texas), early-season struggles (SMU), or thorough under-performance in crucial moments (Texas A&M this weekend), having a solid backup to turn to can make or break a season. And that was all within just one state.

There is a catch to that thought, though, a catch worth keeping in mind …

College football Week 9 things you should not overreact to

Do not overreact to Texas A&M’s 38-23 win against LSU, a win sparked by a dominant second half from QB2 Marcel Reed.

The Texas A&M Aggies trailed 17-7 at halftime, with a 31-6 second half then making this game anything but close. It is undeniable that Texas A&M outplayed the LSU Tigers. The Tigers had no answer for Marcel Reed, who sparked four touchdown drives when he took over behind center because Conner Weigman was too plainly struggling.

The hype around A&M may get out over its proverbial skis this week. First of all, LSU has had defensive fit issues much of the season. Their defense ranking No. 38 in SP+ numbers before this weekend underscored that, a disappointing output from what was supposed to be one of the better and more aggressive defenses in the country.

Second of all, Reed’s strengths have now been seen. While he had played in five games this season, starting three of them, he had yet to cut loose on the ground like he did Saturday night. His nine rushes for 62 yards and three scores was far more impressive than anything he had done to date.

Defenses can now study that.

Texas A&M is probably better with Reed. Aggies head coach Mike Elko said he turned to the sophomore to open up the ground game with the extra worry for the defense. Weigman simply does not present that wrinkle.

But as folks ponder if A&M should now be considered a national title contender — don’t scoff, someone will write that headline — they should be dismissed aside from the Aggies’ standing atop the SEC at 5-0 in conference play. Frankly, there may be an immediate chance to counter those too-quick praises with the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Douglas' advice: If Texas A&M is favored by more than six points, quickly take South Carolina this weekend. That may not happen right away, but the week’s hype of Reed may push it there.

Do not overreact to Miami trotting out the “Philly Special” to initially cover the early-week numbers against Florida State.

The Miami Hurricanes are not becoming a team you can trust. Head coach Mario Cristobal is not always playing with the spread in mind. Beating the usual in-state power just held that much import.

Which is why that 36-14 win should help Mario skeptics this week.

Facing the Duke Blue Devils at noon Eastern will be a bit of a letdown from a primetime date with a primary rival. Miami will not have the usual chip on its shoulder. And it should.

Because the Blue Devils will.

Remember, the Hurricanes administration let Manny Diaz hang in the wind for a week while courting Cristobal back in the winter of 2021. Diaz was still recruiting high school prospects while the whole world knew Miami was recruiting Cristobal.

Now the head coach at Duke, Diaz may hold a grudge. And his defense is finding a habit that will help that grudge.

Duke has a +10 turnover margin in the last two games, helped by six SMU follies on Saturday, despite still losing to the Mustangs in overtime.

Frankly, that +6 turnover differential argues Duke overlooked SMU. If it hadn’t, it certainly would have found a way to use those turnovers to notch a win, right? No, Diaz was already thinking about the Hurricanes.

And Miami’s greatest weakness is Cam Ward’s susceptibility to turnovers. The Hurricanes have been fortunate to not see that much this season, aside from a foolish pick-six at Cal that, offense intended, you probably could have caught and returned for a touchdown. Provided, of course, you could get into Cal.

Even with his modest restraint this season, Ward had thrown five interceptions through seven games.

Douglas' advice: Diaz will want this win. He was probably quietly preparing for it last week. If his defense frazzles Ward, Miami could be in trouble. Take the Blue Devils at any spread past +14.5.

Do not overreact to Houston’s win at home. Congrats, Cougars, you beat Utah’s third-string quarterback.

Little else can be gleaned from that mundane game. The Houston Cougars had a chance to flex their defensive muscle against a floundering offense with an interim coordinator, and Cougars head coach Willie Fritz made sure to do so, garnering one notable win at home in his first season at Houston.

Frankly, that win likely sets up the Cougars for a letdown this week. Their plight in the Big 12 is no longer so embarrassing, no longer so adrift. They can relax.

And in relaxing, they will miss run assignments against the Kansas State Wildcats' dynamic backfield. The Wildcats are still in the mix for the Big 12 championship game, thanks to Jalon Daniels’ charitability late Saturday night.

Week 10 begins with a strong play on Kansas State -10.5 at Houston.
Last week's SP+ would have made that -21.8 before pondering HFA.
Houston just got its Big 12 win for the year. This is a letdown moment.

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 27, 2024

Douglas’ advice: While writing this in the dark of night after Saturday’s games ended, at least one sportsbook has a line of Kansas State -9.5 available. That is an outright mistake. The Wildcats should be favored by 17. Struggling to put away an in-state rival should not knock a power rating to that extent. Out of caution, consider -16.5 to be the upper limit on this advice.

College football Week 9 things you definitely should react to

Do start to overreact to BYU’s dominance and, to a lesser extent, Notre Dame’s.

The “lesser extent” is specified only because there has already been some reaction to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish's improvement since its humbling loss to Northern Illinois, so not as much overreaction is needed now.

All week long, there was wonder why the BYU Cougars went from a 2.5-point favorite at Central Florida on Sunday to closing as a 2.5-point underdog. What did sharps and/or big-money movers see to instill such doubt in the unbeaten Cougars?

Similarly, Notre Dame opened as a 13.5-point favorite against Navy, only to have that line spend much of the week at -12.5 before late-week steam closed it at -14. Why did the world insist on dropping the Irish past a key number? Did Navy inspire that much confidence?

In both instances, the successes have come against relative patsies. Aside from beating Kansas State in a blowout many attributed to Wildcats’ quarterback Avery Johnson’s youth and subsequent turnovers, who has BYU beaten of note? SMU back when Preston Stone was still at quarterback? The Big 12 is too much of a morass to put much faith in the likes of Baylor, Arizona or Oklahoma State.

Again similarly, Notre Dame has found its offensive groove by scoring on Louisville, Stanford and Georgia Tech. Two of those defenses are in the bottom half of the country, and even the Cardinals are still outside the Top-40.

Folks do not want to believe in either team, but that dismisses the challenge of time. Replicating success week over week, no matter the opponents, is its own proof of sustainability.

Douglas' advice: Both BYU and Notre Dame have the week off, the second idle week for each team. Let the world forget about their dominant performances this weekend and again dismiss their quality of opponents. Blindly trust the Cougars and the Irish against Utah and Florida State, respectively, in two weeks. Well, not blindly. But Notre Dame should be trusted up to at least -23, and BYU ought to push double-digits.

Continue to overreact to the roster damage done by late-cycle coaching hires.

The damage done to those rosters has not yet been properly understood. To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 20-39 ATS, including 4-4 this past weekend, not counting Washington’s outright and ATS win against Michigan a month ago, given both teams fit this description.

Those nine teams: UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Boston College, Arizona, Georgia State, Buffalo, South Alabama, San Jose State.

An argument could be made this trend will only strengthen further into the season, that roster damage showing up in attrition and exhaustion. Seven of the nine are in action in Week 10.

In this instance, simply factor this reality into your thought process during the week. Lines should not move immediately and aggressively against all seven, only as much as the market usually does. But two opportunities stand out.

Have you talked to your children about bowl-eligible UConn?
One win away, with three winnable games remaining in Georgia State, at UAB and at UMass.

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 27, 2024

The UConn Huskies are 5-3. They should reach bowl eligibility comfortably, but the Huskies can never assume that. They host the Georgia State Panthers on Friday night, and any coach worth his salt would emphasize to the UConn locker room that this is a ripe chance to reach bowl eligibility in front of the home fans.

The Huskies have been to one bowl game in the last eight seasons, a 28-14 loss to Marshall in the third-ever Myrtle Beach Bowl in 2022. 

Secondly, Michigan’s offense is broken. If you can throw an accurate pass with some zip 30 yards away — not downfield, per se, just a deep out route, as an example — then you might be an addition to the Wolverines’ roster. This problem is a direct result of Jim Harbaugh dragging his feet on his NFL exit while not actively addressing the talent vacuum at quarterback.

Oregon will key in on that, likely tallying a few early scores and then scoffing at Michigan’s attempts to pass to catch up.

Douglas' advice: Fade Georgia State up to -16.5 or -17 vs. UConn, depending on your taste for risking a push. Focus on catching Oregon as first-half favorites of -6.5 or -7 vs. Michigan. Yours truly likely will bet the full-game line aggressively, up to -17, even though stale lookahead lines flirt with -10.

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