The worst conference in college football may have the best chance among the Group of Five of placing its champion into the College Football Playoff.
Conference USA has just two teams better than the average FBS team — if that — but its best team (the Liberty Flames) have a seemingly preordained path to 12-1 or 13-0 and a Playoff berth. But do not be so sure about that as they may stumble.
Here are the college football odds for the 2024 Conference USA campaign.
Conference USA predictions for 2024
- Jacksonville State to win Conference USA (+750)
- Louisiana Tech Under 5 wins (-105)
- Kennesaw State Over 2.5 wins (+105)
- Best Heisman bet: Kaidon Salter (+25000)
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Odds to win Conference USA
| Team |  |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames |
-195 |
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
+450 |
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks |
+750 |
Odds as of 7-31.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston State Bearkats |
+1,700 |
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
+2,500 |
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
+2,500 |
Odds as of 7-31.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Texas El-Paso Miners |
+6,000 |
 New Mexico State Aggies |
+8,000 |
 Florida International Panthers |
+10,000 |
Odds as of 7-31.
October showcases shine and expose
Conference USA may be the worst conference in college football, but it will demand plenty of eyeballs again in 2024. Signing a deal with CBS Sports Network to feature a pile of midweek games in October will draw attention, just as it did in that deal’s maiden season last year.
Sure, sometimes that attention focuses on Sam Houston State scoring in the teens in back-to-back weeks, but those overemphasized struggles also led more people to recognize the Bearkats had an impressive defense in their first season at the FBS level.
Kennesaw State will receive much of that unpleasant glare in 2024, its first season at the FBS level and 10th playing football at all. The Owls will face CUSA’s three best teams all on October weeknights, and it should be assumed those moments will go badly for Brian Bohannon’s team.
The favorites: Liberty leads
Only two teams in all of college football are odds-on favorites to win their conferences: Liberty at -195 in the CUSA and Boise State at -125 in the Mountain West. Between financing its program and bringing in Jamey Chadwell from Coastal Carolina a year ago, it's hard to fathom the Flames ever not being favored to win this rendition of CUSA. Liberty has a bounty of competitive advantages.
But both Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State have hopes of creating enough variance to knock off Liberty. The Hilltoppers are widely regarded as the better team in power ratings, and they get the Gamecocks in Bowling Green.
But Jacksonville State should have strong enough offensive and defensive line play to worry Western Kentucky, most notably the Gamecocks’ offensive line, given the Hilltoppers’ dismal run defense a year ago.
The rest of the field
Of the six remaining teams who could technically win CUSA — Kennesaw State is ineligible for a conference championship this season as it transitions to FBS competition — only Sam Houston State has a genuine argument for consideration. The Bearkats will have decent line play and should again have a strong defense despite returning only four starters.
In a conference with exactly no worthwhile defenses, Sam Houston State’s comes closest among these also-rans. But in a conference with few worthwhile defenses a year ago and no other stellar ones, the Bearkats scored 24 or fewer points in eight of 12 games. Their offense will not kick into gear enough to warrant looking at these future odds.
To rip through the rest of the names in a sentence or less and why they should be dismissed compared to Liberty, Western Kentucky, and Jacksonville State, drum roll please...
- New Mexico State has a sudden rebuild to worry about after losing quarterback Diego Pavia to Vanderbilt, along with head coach Jerry Kill’s retirement.
- Middle Tennessee State is down four starting offensive linemen from an already shoddy rush offense.
- Florida International went 4-1 in one-score games last year, suggesting some regression is due for Mike MacIntyre’s team.
- Louisiana Tech may already be on the verge of firing Sonny Cumbie.
- UTEP may play more FCS-quality players than Kennesaw State does.
Pick to win Conference USA
Jacksonville State
Odds: +750 at FanDuel
Rich Rodriguez has a reputation to uphold, one based on running the ball. Last season, only the three service academies rushed more often than Jacksonville State when compared to the usual team, factoring in down, distance, time, and score.
Even as the Gamecocks replace most of their offense, that rushing attack should not waver, particularly not with senior Anwar Lewis returning from injury. Phil Steele projects Jacksonville State to have the fourth most productive rush offense for a reason.
That exact strength provides the value in this bet. Western Kentucky’s rush defense waved at opponents as they ran by last season. Liberty’s was only marginally better, ranking in the bottom third of the country in expected points added per rush against.
The Flames will most likely win the CUSA title, only in part because they get both the Hilltoppers and the Gamecocks at home in the back half of the season. But Jacksonville State’s rush offense should raise its floor high enough to at least create a hedging opportunity in the CUSA title game.
Conference USA best bets for 2023
Louisiana Tech Under 5 wins
Odds: -105 at Circa Sports
Five wins? Really? The Bulldogs have gone 3-9 in each of Sonny Cumbie’s two seasons. Falling in four out of five one-score games last year may suggest improvement is on the way, but Louisiana Tech returns just six total starters and should not be given any benefit of the doubt.
Somehow making matters worse, the Bulldogs should start the season well. Reaching the end of September at 3-1 would not be a total shock, though 2-2 is much more likely. But if Louisiana Tech fails to reach five wins by the end of October, it could suddenly be too late for Cumbie, because November starts with a visit from Jacksonville State, a trip to Western Kentucky, and a trip to Arkansas.
A coach already on the hot seat seeing a decent season torpedoed by three straight November losses is a coach likely to be fired, at which point even the expected win against Kennesaw State to end the season will be more unlikely than preseason odds suggest — simply given the dashed morale of the entire enterprise.
Kennesaw State Over 2.5 wins
Odds: +120 at Circa Sports
The Owls will be doubted by just about everyone, but their pseudo-option offense could make them dangerous in a conference with such lousy run defenses. Well, at least relatively dangerous.
Kennesaw State intentionally redshirted its best contributors last season, dooming its final year in the FCS to better its chances in its debut FBS season. Advanced metrics will struggle to account for that.
Between hosting FCS-level Tennessee-Martin, heading to San Jose State, and getting shots at each of CUSA’s worst teams, the Owls will have a chance at a third win at some point.
It'll most likely come in the last two weeks of the year hosting FIU — with Mike MacIntyre not exactly setting the world afire yet in his third season after two years of 4-8 records thus far — and then heading to face probably-demoralized Louisiana Tech to end the campaign.
Properly disrespecting the Bulldogs gives reason to also add some respect to Kennesaw State.
Best Heisman Trophy bet for Conference USA
Kaidon Salter, Liberty QB
Odds: +25,000 at DraftKings
Salter is the only genuine Heisman possibility in Conference USA, and he would need a 13-0 season to be even lightly considered.
Salter considered transferring from Liberty before doubling down on the 2024 season. He had been the best Group of Five quarterback in 2023; finding a bigger stage would have made sense.
Aside from an uninspiring schedule, the biggest reason to so strongly doubt his chances at the Heisman is the Flames run the ball too much to emphasize his arm.
More College Football conference predictions
Conference USA stat to know
How bad are the defenses in Conference USA? ESPN’s SP+ advanced numbers consider Liberty’s to be the best in the conference, burdened with the No. 75 defensive rating in the country. Eight of the 10 teams are in the bottom third in defensive rating in the nation, with Western Kentucky avoiding making it nine out of 10 by exactly two spots.
The offenses may not be stellar throughout CUSA, but you might be able to line up for some of the defenses.
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