Duke vs Florida State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Waters Will Keep Ball and Clock Moving for Blue Devils

Four teams are distinctly alive in the ACC football championship odds battle, and one has been forgotten about. The Duke Blue Devils could change that this evening, last playing a competitive ACC game on Labor Day. They are 2-0 in the conference, but a forgotten 2-0 given that long wait.

Upset the Florida State Seminoles this weekend, and plenty of people will notice, though that task could be rather tough if Blue Devils star quarterback Riley Leonard cannot play on a sprained ankle. Duke is nearly a two-touchdown underdog in the college football odds as a result.

Navigating Leonard’s ankle is a difficult handicapping task, but let’s factor that into our free college football picks and predictions for Duke vs Florida State on October 21.

Duke vs Florida State best odds

Duke vs Florida State picks and predictions

The challenge here is to find a bet that makes sense regardless of Riley Leonard’s status. Duke head coach Mike Elko gave a relatively optimistic update on Leonard early this week, but “relatively” may be doing some heavy-lifting there. As long as this spread sits with a hook more than two touchdowns, the market clearly thinks Leonard will not play.

He may, but betting on him would be a mistake. Then again, it would also be a mistake to find a best bet that would be ruined by modern medicine getting Leonard ready.

With or without Leonard, Duke will want to slow down the game to lessen the effects of Florida State’s talent advantage. Junking up this game will be in the Blue Devils’ favor, and that will not surprise anyone.

The matchup should allow Duke to do just that. The Seminoles rank No. 25 in the country in how often they throw the ball when factoring in game state. That passing attack succeeds on 45.4% of its dropbacks to add 0.418 points per attempt, per cfb-graphs.com. Florida State would be an above-average football team if it had to rely on its rushing attack, but it would be nowhere near the national championship odds contender it is right now.

It may need to rely on that rushing attack this week. Elko’s defense allows passing success on only 35.5% of opposing dropbacks, No. 23 in the country, while ranking No. 11 in expected points added per dropback against, opposing teams losing 0.101 expected points for each pass design.

Limiting Florida State to that extent will be difficult, but some impact should be seen. Elko is too sharp a defensive mind not to puzzle Mike Norvell for at least a bit on Saturday night.

On the other side of the ball, with or without Leonard, Duke’s greatest strength fits Florida State’s greatest weakness. The Seminoles give up a pile of first downs on first or second downs, 36.8% of opposing first downs gained coming on early downs, No. 116 in the country. That is just how the Blue Devils prefer life, gaining 44.2% of their first downs before push comes to shove on third down.

That will obviously be impacted without Leonard, but the habit should not be rendered an afterthought. Duke has the ability to eat some clock with its offense, while its defense attempts to limit the downfield impact of Jordan Travis, Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.

If the Blue Devils limit them to any effect and also shorten the game, then it should be doubted that the Seminoles will score more than 31 points.

My best bet: Florida State team total Under 31.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Duke vs Florida State same-game parlay

Florida State Team Total Under 31.5

Jordan Travis Under 248.5 Passing Yards

Jordan Waters anytime TD

50% boost available

+604 +906 at FanDuel

The Travis thought should not require much further explanation. If Duke is going to shorten this game, and its greatest defensive asset is its pass defense, then Travis’s aerial numbers will fall.

Duke has yet to give up more than 222 passing yards this season, allowing only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. That pass defense may simply lead to Travis pulling down the ball and running a bit, something frustrating for any Duke backers but helpful for these thoughts.

As for Jordan Waters, it is simple. He has scored in every game this season, nine times in total. Unless you're expecting Duke to be shut out, there is no reason Waters’ odds should be plus-money to find the end zone. With the possibility of Leonard being sidelined, the Blue Devils may lean on their ground game more where it matters most.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Duke vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis

Florida State opened as a 13-point favorite on Sunday, jumping to -14 that afternoon with some books quickly committing to -14.5. The entire market reached that latter number by midweek, when Elko did not give a clear indication on Leonard’s status either way.

Anyone looking to place their bet on this game contingent on Leonard’s availability should focus on Twitter updates from local beat writers as the two teams begin warming up, about two hours before kickoff. Two names that come to mind are Duke beat writer Conor O’Neill (@ConorOneill_DI) and Florida State beat writer Curt Weiler (@CurtMWeiler). O’Neill, in particular, saw Leonard’s charade of going through some pregame warmups a week ago (before Duke handled North Carolina State with relative ease despite Leonard’s absence) and may be able to detect any more genuine activities compared to that showing.

The total opened at 52.5 on Sunday before falling to 47.5 by the end of the afternoon. That was clearly a reaction to assuming Leonard will be out, an overreaction at that given the number buoyed to 49 that evening and to 49.5 by midweek.

Duke vs Florida State betting trend to know

In eight games as underdogs under Mike Elko, the Blue Devils have gone 6-2 ATS. Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs Florida State.

Duke vs Florida State game info

Duke vs Florida State latest injuries

Duke vs Florida State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic