North Carolina’s ACC title hopes have been dashed, but a game against Duke presents a great chance to get right — and win some in-state bragging rights.
Duke may have the better record between the two Tobacco Road bookends, but the Tar Heels are heavy college football betting favorites, even as they come off a deflating loss at Georgia Tech last weekend.
Sam Howell and North Carolina should be desperate to return to form, and the Blue Devils' porous defense may give them that opportunity.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Duke at North Carolina on Saturday, October 2, with kickoff set for 12 p.m. ET.
Duke vs North Carolina odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The immediate reactions to the Tar Heels losing 45-22 to Georgia Tech knocked this spread down to 18 points when it opened on Sunday. More reasoned thoughts about North Carolina bumped it up to 20 by the time of writing — movement matched by the total, which opened at 69.5 before moving up to 72.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Duke vs North Carolina picks
Picks made on 09/30/2021 at 10:51 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2021 college football season, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Risk-free bet up to $5,000 at Caesars. Claim Now
Canada: Get up to $500 in free bets at Sports Interaction. Claim Now
Duke vs North Carolina game info
• Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
• Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Duke vs North Carolina betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Duke: Matt Smith TE (Out).
North Carolina: Caleb Hood RB (Questionable), Tyrone Hopper LB (Questionable), Storm Duck CB (Out), Ladaeson DeAndre Hollins DB (Out), Ethan West LB (Out), Beau Corrales WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five ACC games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. North Carolina.
Duke vs North Carolina predictions
North Carolina -20 (-110)
The Tar Heels offense came into the season with high expectations, but its offensive line has ruined those in North Carolina's two losses.
In a season-opening 17-10 loss, Virginia Tech sacked Howell six times, part of its nine total tackles for loss, and last week Georgia Tech got to Howell eight times and brought down North Carolina ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage a total of 13 times.
About 25 percent of Howell’s dropbacks become pressures — an inexact stat given the imprecise nature of scrambles. But, if anything, 25 percent is low.
But know what Duke does not do? Pressure the opposing quarterback.
The Blue Devils have just five sacks in four games, and those four games have come against stalwarts such as North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas.
Howell will have time — and with that time, he will renew those high hopes for this offense from the preseason.
Over 72.5 (-110)
The real want is to ride Howell and that offense by taking the Tar Heels team total Over 43.5 points. Unfortunately, the juice on that of -160, as of late Thursday night, makes it a bit less desirable.
But Duke should not need to do too much to crack this total, nonetheless, largely because it does so little on defense already. The Blue Devils may be 3-1, but they have still given up 29 points per game to FBS opponents, and none of those three follies are known for their explosive offenses (Add Charlotte to the aforementioned Northwestern and Kansas.)
Meanwhile, North Carolina has averaged 46.67 points the last three weeks.
The Tar Heels will probably not score 10 touchdowns, but if they approach 50 points and then relax, Duke should push us past this total.
Did you know that if you parlayed our Duke vs. North Carolina picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on college football odds?
You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NCAA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of college football prop odds. Head over to our best football betting sites for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.
