In five combined bowl-game appearances over the last five seasons, neither of these teams has failed to cover. That includes two Liberty outright wins as an underdog and three losses from Eastern Michigan, although still always covering under Chris Creighton. Something will have to give in Mobile, Ala., on Saturday.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Eastern Michigan vs Liberty in the LendingTree Bowl on December 18, with kickoff set for 5:45 p.m. ET.
Eastern Michigan vs Liberty odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
After opening with Liberty favored by 8.5 points, this spread moved as high as -10 before settling at -9.5 early this week, though -9 can still be found at some books. The total opened at 57 before jumping to 58 and finding a resting spot at 58.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Eastern Michigan vs Liberty predictions
Predictions made on 12/14/2021 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the LendingTree Bowl, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Eastern Michigan vs Liberty game info
• Location: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Eastern Michigan vs Liberty betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Eastern Michigan: Bryson Cannon TE (Out).
Liberty: Micaiah Overton DT (Questionable), Henry Chibueze DT (Questionable), Quinton Reese S (Questionable), Javon Scruggs S (Questionable), Ahmad Jackson WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Hugh Freeze is 5-1 ATS in bowl games as a head coach between going 3-1 at Mississippi and 2-0 at Liberty. Find more NCAA betting trends for Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty.
Eastern Michigan vs Liberty picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
It is difficult to see how Eastern Michigan stops Liberty. If considering expected points added per play (EPA), the Flames have the No. 4 rushing offense in the country, per cfb-graphs.com. When removing sacks from the equation — and the inclusion of sacks as negative rushing yards remains the most frustrating aspect of college football stats-keeping — Liberty averages 5.82 yards per carry. Just as concerning for the Eagles? They give up 5.57 yards per rush, sacks adjusted.
In fact, giving up sacks is one of the Flames’ biggest weaknesses, giving up 50 in total this season for a loss of 342 yards, but Eastern Michigan will not pressure Malik Willis very much, notching only 22 sacks this season.
In 10 games against non-Power Five competition, Liberty averaged 34.6 points. Eastern Michigan gave up 27.2 points per game in such contests, hardly a stout defense.
Meanwhile, the Flames’ defense should be adequate enough to slow the Eagles, at least enough so that Willis is able to enjoy a scoreboard cushion.
Prediction: Liberty -9 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Neither of these defenses wows, and particularly not in the red zone. Eastern Michigan gave up a touchdown on 63.89 percent of opponent possessions inside the 20-yard line, good for No. 96 in the country, and Liberty ranked No. 58 by allowing touchdowns on 58.33 percent of red-zone drives.
Paradoxically, both offenses fared rather well in that regard. The Eagles crossed the goal line on 64.15 percent of their drives inside the 20-yard line, No. 46 in the country, and the Flames did so on 69.05 percent of their red-zone possessions, No. 22 in the country.
Those correlating strengths and weaknesses could turn this into an underrated shootout.
Prediction: Over 58.5 (-110)
Best bet
Most years, Willis might be debating another season of college football to burgeon his draft profile, but in this widely-acknowledged weak quarterback class, he almost certainly will jump to the NFL. Thus, this should be his last chance to impress front offices in a competitive environment.
An explosive day from Willis, combined with the aforementioned red-zone efficiencies and defensive efficiencies, should send this well over the total.
Rather than place the best bet on which coach — Huge Freeze at Liberty or Creighton at Eastern Michigan — will suffer his first ATS loss in a bowl game, rather than predict Freeze to lose as a favorite when he always covers in the postseason as an underdog with the Flames, rather than risk the high-variance nature of a shootout, let’s just trust in the shootout.
Pick: Over 58.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
