Florida and Texas will meet in an SEC affair for the first matchup in a long time.
The Horns will enter off a bye week and a close win over Vanderbilt, but my Florida vs. Texas predictions believe the Gators are getting too many points.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, November 9, with kickoff set for Noon ET on ABC.
Florida vs Texas prediction and best bet
My best bet
Florida +21.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
No matter how it’s looked, Florida has at least positioned itself to make a bowl game, even if it will be difficult.
The expectation for the Florida football program is far beyond making a bowl, however, a fair amount of people would have doubted it could reach six wins (and it still may not). Its ability to continue fighting and battling each week over the last month has been admirable and it’s given me confidence to back them here. I’m grabbing Florida, at just over three touchdowns. to cover for my best bet.
If you asked me a month ago, I would have told you Texas was the best team in college football. Then the Georgia loss happened, a loss that was never really in doubt, and Texas didn’t inspire confidence after following up with Vanderbilt a week later. The score was probably closer than the game was in reality but make no mistake, the Horns had to fight to come out of Tennessee with a win.
"Quinn had a good week," head coach Steve Sarkisian said. "He looks fresh, he looks healthy. He's delivering the ball well.”
Quinn Ewers certainly needed a good week of practice. It looked like the bye week came at the perfect time for him after throwing two interceptions against the Dores’. I’d say there’s some type of suspicion here that they’ll benefit from the bye week too but I think it’s priced a bit too much in a spread that I made 17.
That’s because this Florida defense has quietly improved as the season has gone on and could make an impact here.
Coming into this matchup Florida ranks 34th in EPA per drop back but more important to this handicap, has been able to create a good amount of havoc. In fact, if you just make the subset of data the past three games, Florida has created the third most havoc in the SEC and that’s huge going into this matchup.
Ewers has been unsteady since returning from injury. He’s still a talented pass-thrower, who will make several big throws but I’m not sure he’s made the Texas-sized jump that some expected this year. Against this defense, I think he may put up some balls for grabs that Florida will take advantage of. Not only that but the success rate of Texas’ offense has been directly correlated with how successful they are on third down. This Florida defense should be able to at least make some plays that put them behind the chains and make those conversions much more difficult.
On the other side of the ball, there’s not much to say about the Florida offense but it’s not a real integral part of my handicap.
If we can get multiple scores from them, I think we’ll be in a good spot because I think they are going to do everything possible to shorten this game and maintain possession. After two injuries, Florida will be on its third starting quarterback of the season, another fact that has inflated this line some.
Not a ton is known about Yale Transfer Aidan Warner but he was fairly pedestrian in his 22 passes thrown against Georgia.
That said, you can bet Florida has schemed for safe throws and ways to drain the clock against one of the nation's best defenses in this spot. Ultimately there’s not a ton of positives to say about the Florida offensive matchup but this handicap comes down to it being a few too many points given the expected game theory.
Florida vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida +21.5
Under 47.5
Jadan Baugh anytime TD
There is far too much value here.
As we’ve noted above, we expect the Florida approach to this game to be one time-consuming drive and clock-draining playcalling. With that in mind, the first leg of our same-game parlay is the Under. It’s a number that made exactly the same in projecting this game but if Florida covers, this game is going Under in almost all situations.
The last leg of this is Jadan Baugh to find the endzone. There are two parts to this play, well sorta three. First, the injuries in the running back run, most notably to Montrell Johnson, have opened up things for Baugh. Secondly, if Florida gets the position to score a touchdown, it’s highly unlikely they are going to take many risks with a third-string quarterback, and last week Baugh got the most carries of any player. We’ll take him at the price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Florida vs Texas bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Florida vs Texas odds
Florida vs Texas live odds
Florida vs Texas opening odds
- Florida vs. Texas spread: Texas -21.5
- Florida vs. Texas moneyline: Florida +1,100, Texas -2,500
- Florida vs. Texas Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Florida vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Florida has been a covering machine lately with a 5-0 ATS record in its last five games.
- Unfortunately, that stretch of five games has only included five wins for the Gators. Those wins were Kentucky, Central Florida, and Mississippi State.
- Texas may only have one loss this season but hasn’t played well lately with just one cover over its last four games.
- Neither of these teams tilt in a particular direction on a total. Combined the two schools are 11-9 to the Over in their last ten games.
Florida vs Texas betting trend to know
Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 64% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Texas.
Florida vs Texas game info
| Location: | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Florida vs Texas latest injuries
Florida vs Texas weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
