The Michigan Wolverines begin the defense of their college football title when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday.
There’s plenty of turnover for the defending champs, but their defense is once again elite, and Fresno State vs. Michigan picks are backing that D to make an impact this weekend.
Find out why in my college football picks for Saturday, August 31.
Fresno State vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
A lot has changed in Ann Arbor after Michigan claimed the national championship. Head coach Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL, replaced by Sherrone Moore, while offensively, they’re returning just one starter from that title-winning team.
They’re breaking in a brand new quarterback in Alex Orji, who will make his first-ever start. And they’re overhauling an offensive line that was dominant a season ago.
But their defense is once again stacked at every level, and nearly every starter has experience from a season ago. Playing in front of their rabid fans will cause serious issues for the Fresno State offense and help keep the score low enough to go Under the total.
The Bulldogs have a solid offense, but Mikey Keene is a 5’11” quarterback who will have trouble seeing over Michigan’s front line, all of whom stand 6’3” or taller. He’s also going to face one of the best pass defenses in the nation. The Wolverines allowed the second-fewest pass yards per game a year ago, and racked up 39 sacks on the season.
Michigan won’t want to show too much of Orji with a big game against Texas coming up next weekend. I expect the offense to be very run-heavy, which will help negate Fresno State’s bookend pass rushers.
Only two teams in college football ran a slower-paced offense than the Wolverines. Moore is likely to lean on that same style, and give Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings a high volume of carries while relying on his defense to put the clamps on Fresno’s air raid attack.
There’s one other factor that could play a huge role in this game, and that’s beer. The Big House will allow beer sales at the concourse level for the first time ever, and an already rowdy crowd should create even more noise than usual for the Fresno spread offense to contend with.
It’s going to be a long night for the Bulldogs on offense, and the Wolverines will look to pound the rock and get the win as they prepare for Texas. Take the Under 45.5 at BetMGM before the number comes down any further.
Fresno State vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5 points
Donovan Edwards 2+ touchdowns
Michigan -16.5
Blake Corum was the bellcow for this Michigan rushing attack a season ago, and scored a touchdown once every nine carries. He notched multiple touchdowns in 10 of Michigan’s 15 games, including three of their first four contests.
Michigan had a much more reliable passing game a season ago than what they’ll likely have on Saturday, and Edwards will likely see 15-20 carries in this one. He found the endzone twice in the national championship game against Washington, and he’ll repeat that effort here.
I can see Michigan staying vanilla in this one. They’ll do what they need to do and get out without any injuries, without providing any real film for the Longhorns to utilize.
That could lead to a backdoor cover for the visitors, who are 21-point underdogs. I’m projecting a 27-10 win for the Wolverines, and I’ll take them to cover the alternate spread of 16.5 points to round out the parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Fresno State vs Michigan odds
Fresno State vs Michigan live odds
Fresno State vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Fresno State +21 (-114) | Michigan -21 (-106)
- Moneyline: Fresno State +1,200 | Michigan +3,000
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Fresno State vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- Michigan is favored by 20.5 or 21 points, depending on where you get the number. There has been little movement since the line came out in May.
- The Wolverines are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games against unranked teams. Meanwhile, Fresno State is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
- Unlike the spread, there’s been heavy movement in the total market. It opened as high as 48.5 back in July, and was available at that number as recently as August 20. But the past week has seen a significant shift towards the Under as it’s gone down to 45.5 and is likely to come down more as we approach kickoff.
Fresno State vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games (+6.80 units / 56% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Texas A&M.
Fresno State vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Fresno State vs Michigan latest injuries
Fresno State vs Michigan weather
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