Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams gets his first taste of football under the Sunday-Night lights as the Chicago Bears take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.
Williams has feet that can get him out of trouble, which will be more apparent as he gains experience. Entering tonight as a 6-point road dog and likely playing from behind, my Bears vs Texans predictions expect Williams' rushing opportunities will increase along with his chances of breaking a big run.
I dig deeper into William's rushing role in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 15 below.
Bears vs Texans SNF prediction
My best bet
Caleb Williams Over 9.5 yards longest rush attempt (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Caleb Williams is not a rushing QB, I get that, but he has great scrambling abilities which at the NFL level, might turn into more take-off opportunities as he slowly adapts to NFL defenses. He gets outside of the pocket a ton and if the defense is going to give him a path, he is going to take it.
He didn't use his legs much until the second half last week where he tucked and ran on 3rd and 10 for 11 yards trailing 17-10 and scampered for five more on a 3rd-and-long down 17-13. Williams might not have a ton of designed runs, but he is going to have to get creative in his first NFL road game and he will have opportunities to break one for 10+ yards.
First off, he's a near-TD dog playing indoors so there is a lot to like right there in terms of a high-volume passing game script with a fast setting.
Next, his receivers are banged up this with Rome Odunze more doubtful than probable with a Grade-1 MCL sprain and Keenan Allen is questionable with a heel injury. The loss of either of those receivers is going to hurt Williams' chances of staying in the pocket and delivering the ball. If he is missing bodies, the rush rate increases, in my opinion. My best guess is Allen plays and Odunze sits.
THE BLITZ loves Williams' Overs in everything. Chicago played at one of the fastest paces last week and there could be some lay volume to be had for this offense. THE BLITZ is projecting for 35.2 pass attempts and 5.61 carries with very little kneel-down equity as a 6.5-point dog. It's going to be a tougher defense to read on the road with less communication, but all of that favors the scramble Sunday night.
Bettors might have to wait until the second half, but with some play volume not priced in, banged-up receivers, an indoor setting, and a rookie's first road game, this is a solid spot to back Williams' rushing prop Overs. All three rookie QBs hit their rushing Over attempts, and longs last week.
Bears vs Texans SNF same-game parlay
Caleb Williams 5+ rush attempts
Joe Mixon 100+ rush and receiving yards
Joe Mixon anytime touchdown
If the Houston Texans play like a TD favorite and Williams struggles early in his first road game, the Texans could be giving Joe Mixon another heavy workload while the Chicago QB will be playing the comeback role. If the game follows that game script, these three plays are all live together.
Joe Mixon handled a massive 30 carries last week while adding three receptions for 19 yards. The Chicago defense may be underrated, but with Mixon handling 90% of the RB carries in Houston and Chicago having to choose between stacking the box or getting beat by the Houston passing game, Mixon's volume is almost guaranteed. It was amazing I got his TD price last week at +110. I'm not sure how long Mixon can handle this volume, but Houston is committed to letting him handle the heavy lifting of this offense right out of the gates. Mixon has plenty of paths to this Over and backup Dameon Pierce is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Williams getting five carries is the final leg of this. It will be trouble if Chicago is playing with the lead, but I'm not expecting him to pull a 180 from last week. Houston is a legit contender for the No.2 seed in the AFC and DeMeco Ryans can shut down a rookie QB making his first road start and coming off a turd of a debut. I like the longest carry prop more than the five carries, but this projects well too, and correlates well with Houston playing with the lead and leaning on Mixon.
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Bears vs Texans odds
Bears vs Texans live odds
Bears vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +3.5 | Houston -3.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +155 | Houston -185
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bears vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Texans were bet up from -3.5 to -6.5 quickly following Chicago's offensive performance in Week 1 despite the Bears collecting the win. The Chicago offense had the worst yards per play at 2.8 and scored zero offensive TDs.
- If Chicago is missing Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, this could hit 7 on the spread. Allen had better than a 40% target share in Week 1 and was Williams' favorite target.
- This total climbed as high as 47 before taking Under money which drove it as low as 45 as of Friday morning. My bet is this closes at 46.5 if Allen dresses.
- The Bears closed as 4-point favorites last week making this week's 10.5-point swing one of the biggest of Week 1 and on par with the Falcons.
Bears vs Texans betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have covered the 2H spread in eight of their last 10 games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Texans.
Bears vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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