Sunday sees the Cleveland Browns face the Jacksonville Jaguars, with both teams searching for their first win of the season.
With the spread sitting at just a field goal, books expect this to be a tight game, and my Browns vs. Jaguars prediction gives the slim home favorites an edge.
Find out why my NFL picks for Week 2 are backing Jacksonville.
Browns vs Jaguars prediction
My best bet
Jaguars -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This weekend’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns is a tale of two quarterbacks: One is loved by his fanbase, while the other is one of the least popular faces in the NFL. On Sunday, the game will be played at TrEverBank Stadium, with the team renaming the stadium after Trevor Lawrence, who also has a partnership with Everbank.
On the other sideline will be Deshaun Watson, a player Dabo Swinney once called the “Michael Jordan of football" after a sensational start to his career with the Texans. A number of years (and scandals and a trade to Cleveland) have passed, and now Watson and his gigantic guarantee have become a hindrance to the Browns, who simply can’t afford to move on from him.
Last week, Watson threw for 169 yards and a touchdown in a shocking performance that also saw him get intercepted twice. Aside from the picks, the biggest problem was that it looked like he had lost the ability to throw the deep ball, looking like a pale imitation of the player who lit up the NFL as a rookie.
The Browns are fortunate to have one of the NFL’s best defenses, but they’ll need to win games in spite of the man under center, rather than because of him. Will a Watson-led offense be able to get past the Jaguars in their home opener?
The Jaguars lost Week 1 to the Dolphins, a result they will be annoyed with, given that they were the better team for large parts of the game. They did a very good job of keeping the Dolphins’ celebrated rushing attack at bay, but they fell apart in the second half of the game and ended up seeing both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle break 100 receiving yards.
Watson doesn’t have the accuracy of Tua Tagovailoa, and the Browns will need to rely on their ground game to win, something the Jags did well to stop last time out.
The Browns defense is fantastic and will cause Lawrence and his team problems, but when the offense is so anemic and can only convert two of 15 third downs, then they’re going to have a hard time keeping up with the Jags regardless of what the defense does. Expect a low-scoring Jaguars win, with the winning side covering the spread, too.
Browns vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Jaguars -3
Jerome Ford Over 48.5 rushing yards
Brian Thomas Jr Over 38.5 receiving yards
In addition to our best bet, we’re also going to back Jerome Ford to have Over 48.5 rushing yards. He almost hit that mark against the Cowboys with 44 on 12 carries, but given the struggles that we saw from Watson, there’s a strong chance that the Browns really lean into the run and take the load off their under-pressure quarterback.
The final leg of the SGP is for Brian Thomas Jr. to have over 38.5 receiving yards. He was maybe the most impressive rookie wideout in Week 1. He caught all four of his targets for 47 yards and has earned more opportunities this week. He showed that he’s a deep threat, too, so we can expect the Jaguars to continue to expand his role in the offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Browns vs Jaguars odds
Browns vs Jaguars live odds
Browns vs Jaguars opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +3 (-105) | Jacksonville -3 (-115)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +135 | Jacksonville -160
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Browns vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings.
- The Browns covered the spread when they beat the Jaguars 31-27 in their most recent meeting in December 2023.
- The Under has landed in four of the Jaguars’ past five games.
Browns vs Jaguars betting trend to know
The Jaguars have covered the first-half spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 units / 24% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Jaguars.
Browns vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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