Georgia State vs Louisiana Picks and Predictions: Panthers Left Raging

Louisiana has a strong lead in the Sun Belt and a win Thursday night would clinch the West Division and a berth in the conference championship game for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Facing a middling Georgia State team should set up Louisiana to lock-in that title chance, but when it comes to weeknight football, we all know anything can happen.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Georgia State at Louisiana on November 4, with kickoff set for 7:30 ET.

Georgia State vs Louisiana odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

After opening with Louisiana favored by 10.5 on Sunday, this line moved toward the Cajuns on Monday, favoring them by 12.0 before reaching 12.5 at some books on Wednesday. The total featured a bit more movement, opening at 53.0 before rising to 54.5 on Tuesday and settling at 53.5 on Wednesday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Georgia State vs Louisiana picks

• Louisiana -12.0 (-110)
• Georgia State Under 20.5 (-115)

Picks made on 11/3/2021 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Georgia State vs Louisiana game info

• Location: Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
• Date: Thursday, November 4, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Georgia State vs Louisiana betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Georgia State: Cornelius McCoy WR (Questionable).
Louisiana: Emani Bailey RB (Out), Tito Bryce RB (Questionable), Da’Jon Bonnee WR (Questionable), Tyler Brown OL (Out), Jax Harrington OL (Out), Carlos Rubio OL (Out), Sonny Hazard DL (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 11-1 in Louisiana’s last 12 home games, and the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two conference opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia State vs. Louisiana.

Georgia State vs Louisiana predictions

Louisiana -12.0 (-110)

Styles make fights, right? Georgia State likes to run the ball and has the equivalent of no passing game. Louisiana, meanwhile, holds up well against the run. The Panthers throw for only 163.5 yards per game and 6.4 yards per attempt. Changing things up against a stout run defense is probably not within their abilities.

But running with success on Thursday will also probably not be within their abilities. Louisiana gives up fewer than four yards per rush attempt. Per cfb-graphs.com, the Cajuns defense allows only a 32.0 percent success rate on rushes, good for No. 15 in the country.

This will all obviously play into the total handicap, as well, but on this half of the conversation, it is all worth noting. If Georgia State cannot run its usual offense, pun intended, Louisiana will need to do much less to cover a number less than two touchdowns. The Cajuns average 32.0 points per game and have cracked 40 in two of their last three games. If removing the season opener at Texas (18 points) and a foray into the triple-option slog that was a trip to Georgia Southern (28 points), Louisiana averages 35.0 points per game.

Georgia State would need to hold the Cajuns to their averages as well as reach its own of 23.9 points per game in order to ruin the night for any Louisiana backers, all while struggling with its usual offensive approach.

Georgia State team total Under 20.5 (-115)

When the Panthers are able to run their usual offense, they average only a field goal more than this. Without their usual offense, they may struggle to string enough drives together to crest this team total. When passing the ball, they achieve success only 38.9 percent of the time, by the standard definition of success rate.

Louisiana will not need to sell out to stop Georgia State’s run game. The Cajuns will be able to stick with their usual template, and at that point, the Panthers may not have an applicable offensive adjustment.

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