Georgia vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: One Bulldog Struggles to Run

On a week with letdown worries across the country, from South Bend to Baton Rouge, they do not seem to apply to the Georgia Bulldogs. Kirby Smart has built too efficient of a football machine in Athens for such trivial concerns. That inevitability will come at the expense of the Mississippi State Bulldogs this week, and that will be the last time either team’s nickname will be used in this handicap.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Georgia vs Mississippi State on November 12, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Georgia vs Mississippi State best odds

Georgia vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

If you can’t run, scoring becomes more difficult.

Those eight words are about 400 shy of the usual handicap here, but this may be that simple. Nick Saban solved Mike Leach’s offense, Kirby Smart took note, and that reality will long doom any Mississippi State hopes of SEC glory.

It is not an exaggeration. In three games against Alabama since Leach took over in Starkville, his offense has run for 98 yards on 60 carries, scoring 15 total points. In 2021, you, dear reader, rushed for more yardage against the Tide than Mississippi State did, as Leach’s scheme netted one negative yard in that loss.

Not that Smart needed Saban’s blueprint that thoroughly. His only meeting against Leach came three weeks after Alabama’s first, and Georgia gave up just 22 yards on 14 carries.

This has been a common theme for Leach at Mississippi State, but it has been taken to an extreme against Saban and Smart.

Against everyone else in 29 games: 3.16 yards per rush.
Against these two in four games: 1.62 yards per rush.

Against everyone else in 29 games: 65.9 rushing yards per game.
Against these two in four games: 30.0 rushing yards per game.

Against everyone else in 29 games: 20.9 rush attempts per game.
Against these two in four games: 18.5 rush attempts per game.

Now, a Leach defender may say it does not matter; Leach’s offense does not like to run the ball, anyway. And that is true — but he still needs to run the ball. Just a touch of a ground game opens up the passing routes that keep Leach’s rendition of the Air Raid functioning.

Without it, well, you score 15 points combined in three games against the Tide.

Georgia may again have the best defense in the country. If that has not yet been the case statistically this year, it is because it has not needed to be. But the red-and-silver display against Tennessee last week made it clear: You cannot beat Georgia downfield, and its front-seven remains a menace.

Those dynamics do not take weeks off, not even in letdown moments. That’s what made Georgia such an alluring Playoff pick before last season and why it increasingly looks like the frontrunner again in 2022.

Holding Mississippi State to a low output will not be more impressive than so handling the Volunteers, but maybe Georgia can keep Mississippi State from rushing for positive yards on the day, and that will be humbling enough to support this bet against Leach’s offense.

My best bet: Mississippi State team total Under 17.5 (-111 at FanDuel)

Georgia vs Mississippi State spread analysis

The question of if Georgia can cover a 16.5-point spread likely hinges on how hard Smart wants to push this week. He openly admitted he called off the ‘dogs last week against Tennessee, content to cruise into the postgame locker room with a two-score win when Georgia probably could have won by 30 if it really wanted to.

Then again, he pulled up offensively. Georgia’s defense is an all-systems-go kind of operation, pressuring quarterbacks into mistakes as a force of habit. As long as that does not slow down Saturday, then Mississippi State may not score enough to threaten this spread. How many points will Georgia need to cover this? Could 17 be enough? 24? 27?

Georgia vs Mississippi State Over/Under analysis

If this handicap is suggesting Mississippi State could struggle to reach double digits, but a week ago Georgia’s offense openly let off the gas, then a total of 53.5 should be hard to reach.

If looking for reason to consider the Over, though, then ponder Stetson Bennett’s hopes of winning the Heisman or even simply being invited to New York City for the ceremony. The Georgia quarterback has thrown for 289.6 yards per game this season but just 11 touchdowns. Smart may need to boost Bennett’s raw stats to garner that invite.

A quick four touchdowns against Mississippi State would not do that on their own, but they would be a good start.

Georgia vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The Under is 8-2-1 in Georgia’s last 11 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia vs. Mississippi State.

Georgia vs Mississippi State game info

Georgia vs Mississippi State latest injuries

Georgia vs Mississippi State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic