Georgia vs Texas Player Props & Best Bets: Bulldogs Rely on Beck With Pass-Heavy Approach

Prop bet #1: Carson Beck Over 264.5 passing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Georgia has leaned on its veteran quarterback ever since Alabama took that massive lead a few weeks ago. Since then, the Bulldogs are running less and operating better. In two of those three games, Carson Beck threw for more than 400 yards, the exception coming in a relative blowout of Auburn when he did not need to shoulder the burden.

As good as Texas’s defense is, and it genuinely is, Georgia will still lean on Beck to continue this surge, one in which the Bulldogs have scored more than five points per quality drive — up more than two points compared to its first two games against FBS competition this season.

Rather clearly related: Beck has thrown eight touchdowns in the last three games compared to just two in the first games against FBS competition this year.

When things are competitive the rest of this season, expect the Bulldogs to throw the ball. And things should absolutely be competitive in Austin.

On the left, Georgia's offense through two games this season.
On the right, Georgia's offense through five games.
The Bulldogs are running less often but better. That kind of efficient aggression has me at least eyeing some early entertainment in Austin.
(h/t @statsowar) pic.twitter.com/iEfSqCFOiX

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 18, 2024

Prop bet #2: Isaiah Bond Over 50.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

An ankle injury plagued Isaiah Bond last week, first hurting it early and then reaggravating it again later on, per Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. Thus, Bond was targeted just three times, catching one pass for five yards.

But the Longhorns controlled that Red River matchup throughout, never needing to worry or stress someone with a bum ankle. The expectation all week has been that Bond will play, Sarkisian deeming him "probable."

Up until last week, Bond had cleared this prop in every game this season. That is his truer form, not the one diminished in the game plan last week. Again, Texas had no reason to look to him often, easily trouncing Oklahoma.

Furthermore, Georgia’s defense is a bit vulnerable against the pass, ranking No. 87 in the country in dropback success rate against, opponents propelling their drives forward on 42.4% of dropbacks. A few catches simply moving the chains could give Bond more confidence in his ankle as well as establish a rhythm for Quinn Ewers.

And then, clearing this yardage prop should not be much of an ask.

Prop bet #3: Georgia halftime moneyline / Texas full-game moneyline

+500 at BetMGM

First of all, do not put a full unit on this thought. Second of all, realize the coin flip can run counter to this thought, and that obviously will not be known until moments before kickoff.

Now then, this is a thought based on the difference in urgency for these two. Georgia needs to win this game, and it cannot hold anything back for any reason whatsoever. A loss will knock the Bulldogs out of the SEC race, out of the mix for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and, most notably, jeopardize its Playoff chances entirely. 

Meanwhile, Texas is the better team, has home-field advantage, and is favored for a reason. Sarkisian is willing to feel out an opposing defense early to best exploit it late. He may run some plays in the first quarter, expecting them to fail but knowing they will set up better looks in the fourth quarter.

There is value in this halftime/full-time combination, though it is also a thin needle to thread.

Georgia is running less often but better.
It is finishing quality drives.
This weekend's "kitchen sink" game at Texas should show off the Bulldogs offense ... pic.twitter.com/zrF0ImgZwK

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 17, 2024