Grambling State vs Southern Odds, Picks and Predictions: Upset Watch in the Bayou Classic

The Bayou Classic features the struggling Grambling Tigers against the Southern Jaguars this afternoon, and it presents a chance for Hue Jackson’s debut season with Grambling State to end on an uptick.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Grambling vs. Southern on November 26, with kickoff set for 1:00 ET.

Grambling State vs Southern best odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 26, 2022.

Grambling State vs Southern picks and predictions

Let’s go big.

These are two teams on long-term different trajectories, though neither has played in two weeks. And those results two weeks ago run counter to this choice.

Southern beat Mississippi Valley State, 27-7, two weeks ago, but only so much credence should be given to that win. The Delta Devils are one of the worst teams at the FCS level, and two Jaguars scores came on possessions starting inside Mississippi Valley State’s 20-yard line. In a more genuine way, Southern won 13-7.

If that was realized, this spread would not be double digits, especially since the Jaguars had lost their two previous games by multiple scores each.

Grambling, meanwhile, fell 41-7 in a rout at Texas Southern two weeks ago. That elicits little-to-no faith in the Tigers, until realizing only one Texas Southern scoring drive covered more than 60 yards on multiple plays. Grambling gave up field position and big plays, repeatedly. Those are not encouraging mistakes, but from a repeatable folly perspective, they are not something Southern can assume it will enjoy, as well.

Heading into that, Grambling had won its previous two games, most notably beating Alcorn State, 35-6, one of the tougher foes on the Tigers’ schedule. Before those wins, Grambling had fallen by four to Florida A&M and in double overtime to Alabama A&M.

The Tigers are better than their 3-7 record reflects. Hue Jackson’s debut season in Louisiana has featured improvement, and if that was properly realized, this spread would again not be double digits.

But let’s go big.

If Grambling is better than its 3-7 record and has been playing teams close and even winning of late, Texas Southern gifts aside, and Southern has been struggling of late, then why limit ourselves to the 10-point spread? There is more variance at the FCS level than the FBS level, a result of fluctuating rosters and less public knowledge. 

Such variance adds further value to betting on Grambling to win outright today.

My best bet: Grambling moneyline (+315 at FanDuel)

Grambling State vs Southern spread analysis

SP+ numbers think this game should be 4.5 points. Broader math puts it a bit north of Southern -8. But there are no numbers that argue this spread should be as wide as -10.

Focusing on some FCS trends, sportsbooks protect themselves a bit more though with softer lines. Putting it at -10 increases the chances of a push, lessening sportsbooks’ exposure in a market they do not hone in on as closely.

That push will only help a Grambling bet.

The Tigers would have covered this number in four of their last five games, while Southern would have covered it only once in its last three.

Grambling State vs Southern Over/Under analysis

A total of 52.5, as of midmorning Saturday, sets this up for a 31-21 Southern victory. Turning back to those recent trends, all of Grambling’s last four games and Southern’s last three games would have come in Under this total.

If trusting the suggestions to back Grambling, that also supports betting the Under here. Southern’s best path to victory is the one it enjoyed last week, the one Grambling handed to Texas Southern, but if the Tigers cut down on the big plays allowed and field-possession woes, that will also cut down on the total points.

Grambling vs Southern trend to know

Of Southern’s six wins in the last 14 years of the Bayou Classic, only two have been by multiple possessions.

Grambling State vs Southern game info

Grambling State vs Southern latest injuries

Grambling State: None.

Southern: None.

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