Do not treat the Heisman Trophy odds like most other pieces of college football betting. It is a narrative-based award as much as it is an achievement. The Heisman is won off the field as much as it is won in the stadiums.
But do factor in a couple rules of thumb for these college football picks. Primarily, the Heisman winner will come from a national title contender unless he posts truly prodigious numbers. Plus, of course, it will almost certainly be a quarterback.
If it was clear who would be the next Robert Griffin III (Baylor, 2011), Lamar Jackson (Louisville, 2016) or Jayden Daniels (LSU, 2023), then these Heisman odds would be far more clear-cut. Instead, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the favorite at most sportsbooks, with odds around +600.
There will be more Heisman contenders in 2024 than ever, as abstract of a claim as that seems. With a 12-team College Football Playoff, that many more teams will be in national title contention deep into the season. Narratives will be abundant, but I'm here to help you sort through those potential storylines to derive the best bets on the board ahead of Week 1.
Preseason Heisman picks for 2024
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Carson Beck, QB, Georgia
Odds: +1,100 at Circa Sports
The Georgia Bulldogs will be driven more by its offense in 2024 than by its defense. Both units will shine and be among the best in the country, but the Dawgs’ offense will be a touch better, relatively speaking. That will stand out in the SEC in 2024.
The SEC is known for its defenses. Right now, it should be recognized for its offenses. Only one team in the SEC aside from Georgia has a Top-10 defense by preseason SP+ metrics. Six have offenses in those reaches.
In other words, the SEC is going to produce some numbers this season, and Georgia will lead the way. The Dawgs face just one other Top-10 defense, heading to Alabama on Sept. 28. But they face three Top-10 offenses (at Alabama, at Texas on Oct. 19, at Mississippi on Nov. 9). Carson Beck will need to outscore them to keep Georgia headed back to the Playoff.
He is more than capable of that kind of production. Beck averaged 9.5 yards per pass attempt last season and completed 72.4% of his passes. Putting together rates like that again with more production needed to outscore the Tide, Longhorns, and Rebels would certainly place Beck firmly in the Heisman race, especially with that Mississippi game preceding a visit from Tennessee, both in November.
Riley Leonard, QB, Notre Dame
Odds: +3,000 at Circa Sports
November games matter. Playing in the national spotlight in November impresses the most voters. It hardly matters if the games are important; it matters if they draw headlines.
Few teams draw headlines better than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and this November will emphasize that reality. One of their games in the final month of the season is a home game against Florida State, another is a game against Army at Yankee Stadium to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the first time the “Four Horsemen” were lionized, and another is a season-ending trip to USC. The first two of those games are already slotted for primetime on NBC, and it seems likely the game in Los Angeles ends up there, as well.
Riley Leonard will have his chances to impress a national audience, and given Notre Dame’s schedule is relatively lackluster, those will also be chances to propel the Irish into the Playoff.
Leonard is up for that challenge. His stats the last two seasons were skewed by playing through some frustrating injuries, but focus on his healthy moments and his talent becomes more clear. In his last 18 healthy games, Leonard led Duke to a 13-5 record. Yes, Duke.
In those 18 healthy games, Leonard threw for 23 touchdowns and rushed for 17 more while throwing just seven interceptions. He averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt while completing 63.5% of his passes. And, again, this was at Duke.
If Leonard keeps Notre Dame in the Playoff mix at 11-1 or even 12-0, his stats will cement his Heisman candidacy.
Cam Rising, QB, Utah
Odds: +5,000 at Circa Sports
Cam Rising was a star. He played 13 games in each of 2021 and 2022, averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt through them, accounted for 58 total touchdowns, and threw just 13 interceptions in those 26 games.
Then he tore most of his knee in the 2022 Rose Bowl. Despite rumors and hopes he could return in any given week of the first half of 2023, the recovery from his extensive surgery cost Rising the entire 2023 season.
But here is the thing: Rising should still be a star.
He is now 20 full months removed from the injury. This is not an instance of a player coming back after just nine months and not being thoroughly confident in his knee. Rising should be.
At 25 years old, it should be trusted that Rising is mature enough to avoid ever getting rattled, and if he is unsure in a moment, he can look for star tight end Brant Kuithe. When Rising has time and confidence, he can look deep for USC transfer receiver Dorian Singer.
This offense will surprise some folks this season, while the defense should be the prototypical headache that head coach Kyle Whittingham prefers. That combination will have the Utah Utes in a series of interesting November games — at Colorado, vs. Iowa State, and at Central Florida — before a possible Big 12 title game appearance.
Cam Rising was a star. Running up the score on the Buffaloes will not only mark him as an inspiring comeback story — remember, narrative — but it will also reassert Rising’s stardom and stamp a firm Utes claim for Playoff hopes. Without the Pac-12 dragging down national notice, the world may have to recognize Rising in the Heisman mix.
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