Illinois vs Kansas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Jayhawks Exploit Porous Defense

Neither the Illinois Illini nor the Kansas Jayhawks could be too happy about their Week 1 wins. Victories notwithstanding, they struggled too much with Toledo and Missouri State, respectively. Illinois needed a last-second field goal to sneak past the Rockets, while a 21-0 Kansas run in the fourth quarter obscured how competitive its FCS opponent was.

Any win this Friday night will leave a better impression than those triumphs did, but who should you back, with the college football odds tabbing the visiting Illini as 3-point underdogs?

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Illinois vs. Kansas on September 8.

Illinois vs Kansas best odds

Illinois vs Kansas picks and predictions

Some injury histories create vague wonderings of being injury-prone. Anyone attaching that criticism to Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is being intentionally unfair. His shoulder injury last season has no connection to the back tightness that sidelined him in the opener against the Bears. Franky, the Jayhawks enjoyed some level of confidence they could beat Missouri State with or without their star quarterback, and they did just that, even if it was a one-score game at halftime and a 10-point game for more than four minutes of the fourth quarter.

Now Kansas gets its most dynamic player back in the fold, and it may need him facing a supposedly stout defense.

“Supposedly stout” because Illinois gave up 28 points to Toledo, and that should have been more. Toledo had first downs inside the plus-30 yard line on three separate drives that resulted in field goals. A first-and-10 from the 11 and another from the 13, both in the first half, should have yielded more than six points. Oh, and let’s not overlook the drive that ended in a punt even though Toledo had a first-and-10 from the plus-35-yard line.

That’s not a newfound problem for the Rockets. Don’t go ascribing a pile of credit to Illinois. Toledo ranked No. 94 in the country last season in points per quality drive. Turning seven quality drives — defined here as a drive where, statistically, it was more likely Toledo would score than not — into 28 points was actually an improvement on the Rockets’ 2022 rate.

The Jayhakws do not have that problem. Kansas ranked No. 34 in the country last year in points per quality drive, 0.66 points per drive better than Toledo.

Take that number, just that stat, and imagine if the Rockets could have matched it last week. Putting together a Jayhawks’ level of plus-territory competency would have given Toledo 30.8 points on Saturday. Round that up to 31 and the Rockets win. Give that already-improved rate a full Kansas-level boost, and Toledo would have rounded up to 33 points, a win.

That math is obviously fraught, but it illustrates how narrow the margin of error was for Illinois and how the win was more a Rockets’ loss than anything else.

Sure, Kansas was playing an FCS opponent, but imagine the Jayhawks were going against Bowling Green, or Louisiana Tech, or Akron, three of the 14 FBS teams Missouri State ranked ahead of in the final 2022 Sagarin ratings. In that scenario, would there be more praise for Kansas as it scored 48 points on 10 quality drives on Friday, all with its backup quarterback? Of the Jayhawks’ 11 genuine possessions, the only one that was not a quality drive was a fumble. Otherwise, Kansas moved the ball consistently and effectively.

An offense that has already shown its rhythm now getting back its best player and with an aptitude in the one area that saved Illinois last week? That is a clear recipe for a pile of Jayhawks points this Friday.

My best bet: Kansas team total Over 30.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Illinois vs Kansas same-game parlay

Kansas TT Over 30.5 points
Kansas -3
Devin Neal anytime touchdown

+224 at FanDuel

Jayhawks receiver Luke Grimm and running back Devin Neal played a combined 25 out of 26 games last season, Neal leading the team in touchdowns and Grimm only further surpassed by Daniels’s rushing scores. Yet, of Grimm’s six touchdowns and Neal’s 10, they never scored in the same week last season.

They did last week, but the oddity of last year is hard to shake from the mind. So rather than add a fourth leg to this single-game parlay with a Grimm touchdown (-115), let’s use only Devin Neal odds (-165).

The logic is simple: He is the most likely player to help propel Kansas toward that team total Over. And if the Jayhawks score more than 30 points, it quickly becomes difficult to envision Illinois keeping pace. The Illini relied on a methodical rushing game last season, not surprising to anyone who has ever watched Bret Bielema coach a football game. That should cut through the Jayhawks a bit, their defense still presumably lackluster, but only a bit. Methodical ground games tend to have that effect.

It worked so well for Illinois last season because the Ryan Walters-coached defense created good field position for the offense more often than not. That is going to dwindle this season with Walters now the head coach at Purdue and the best pieces of that secondary — a secondary that had 24 interceptions last year — now in the NFL. Furthermore, every time Kansas successfully finishes a drive, that will harm the Illini starting field position.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Illinois vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis

Stale lookahead lines favored Kansas by just 1.5 points early on Sunday before refreshed lines established the Jayhawks as 3-point favorites, a number that some books dabbled up to -3.5 before stabilizing at -3.

The total climbed. It opened at 55.5 midafternoon on Sunday before reaching 56.5 on Monday and jumping to 58.0 on Wednesday when bigger money could move in.

Credit Kansas’s ability to finish drives for that climb. It is the surest way to a higher-scoring game, consistently making the most of presented opportunities.

Illinois vs Kansas betting trend to know

Kansas has cashed the team total Over in four of its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Illinois vs. Kansas.

Illinois vs Kansas game info

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