Want a quick statement on how crazy the Big Ten has been so far in 2020? Here it is: Indiana is arguably the second-best team in the conference. Not Michigan. Not Penn State. Indiana.
What a time we live in.
But now, expectations are beginning to grow for Indiana as sportsbooks have set them as 7.5-point road favorites for this week’s game at Michigan State. Can the Hoosiers continue to impress against the Spartans?
Let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for Indiana vs. Michigan State, with kickoff scheduled for Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 ET.
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
Weather
It should be a nice afternoon for football in East Lansing. The forecast is calling for mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid-40s for the game. Bettors should take note however there is expected to be an 11-12 mph crossfield wind blowing towards the northwest corner of the stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Indiana: Mike Katic OL (Questionable), Khameron Taylor TE (Questionable), Samuel Slusher DB (Questionable), David Ellis RB (Questionable), Shamar Jones DL (Questionable), Sam Daugstrup TE (Questionable), Ty Wise LB (Questionable), Turon Ivy Jr., TE (Out).
Michigan State: Matt Dotson TE (Questionable), Tre Mosley WR (Questionable), Chris Jackson CB (Questionable), Matt Allen OL (Questionable), Devonte Dobbs OL (Questionable), Luke Campbell OL (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is trending between Indiana and Michigan State, going 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, while the Over is a combined 5-1 in the teams’ six games this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan State.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Indiana opened the year with a stunning win over Penn State and followed that up with a win over Rutgers. But the Hoosiers' most impressive win came last week, when they soundly defeated Michigan 38-21, easily covering as 4.5-point home underdogs. Indiana now sits at 3-0 SU/ATS, thanks to an efficient offense, led by QB Michael Penix Jr., and a solid defense.
Penix Jr. is completing 58.9 percent of his passes for 750 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception while adding another two scores on the ground. The Hoosiers would like a little more out of their run game, which is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
Indiana's defense has helped out by limiting opponents to 5.1 yards per play and has already recorded eight takeaways this season. That could bode well against a Michigan State team that has had issues with turnovers.
Those issues have been no more apparent than with QB Rocky Lombardi. In Michigan State’s two losses to Rutgers and Iowa, Lombardi has thrown five interceptions against just three touchdowns. On top of that, the Spartans have not been able to get anything going on the ground, with their top two backs averaging just 3.1 yards per rush.
If Michigan State can limit the turnovers it could keep this one close. But it's hard to trust a team that has been so manic this season. Lay the points with the favorite.
PREDICTION: Indiana -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Despite ranking near the bottom of the country in yards per game, Indiana has made the most of its opportunities. The Hoosiers are averaging 37 points per game this season while simultaneously giving up 25.7 points per contest. The result has been the Over going 3-0 in the Hoosiers’ first three games this season and now with a number of 51.5, they see their lowest total of the year.
It’s hard to see Indiana slowing down against a Michigan State defense that is certainly not as strong as we have been used to over the years. The Spartans are giving up an ugly 37 points per game, and that includes 49 points to an Iowa team that had scored just 40 points combined in the previous two games. Obviously, those numbers are elevated due to the turnovers, but as mentioned, the Spartans have been turnover machines.
But while Lombardi has had an affinity for throwing picks, he has moved the ball pretty well, throwing for 869 yards this season, and through the air has been the one place you can attack this Hoosiers’ defense. This number is low enough for these teams to sneak Over.
PREDICTION: Over 51.5 (-110)
First Half Spread Pick
All those turnovers sure haven’t helped Michigan State get off to good starts this season. The Spartans are averaging 9.0 first-half points per game this season and if they don’t start to limit the giveaways, they’ll get down early to this opportunistic Indiana squad.
Not to mention that the Hoosiers have gone into halftime with an average lead of 13.3 points. Take Indiana on the first-half spread.
PREDICTION: Indiana -4.0 First Half Spread (-105)
Indiana vs Michigan State Betting Card
- Indiana -7.5 (-110)
- Over 51.5 (-110)
- Indiana -4.0 First Half Spread (-105)
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Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on College Football?
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