On a weekend where every one of nine conference championship games has a spread within a touchdown, no spread is tighter than the Big 12 title game, with the Arizona State Sun Devils mere 2-point favorites against the Iowa State Cyclones.
My Iowa State vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks will take the value in the underdog in no small part due to a Sun Devils’ injury. Kickoff comes this afternoon at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Iowa State vs Arizona State predictions and best bet
- Spread pick: Iowa State +2 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Iowa State (+105 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Iowa State moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
Iowa State vs Arizona State spread prediction
A spread of two points is not quite the moneyline substitute you may think it is. If this game comes down to a decision at the goal line, a debated two-point conversion could provide value in the underdog.
That thought is effectively suggesting, if Iowa State is down a touchdown and scores in the final minute, Matt Campbell may go for two and the win rather than risk overtime. In that instance, the Cyclones would cover the spread.
Alternatively, if that same thing happens with Arizona State trying to win, the worst that would happen to Iowa State is losing by a point, thus covering this spread.
Iowa State vs Arizona State moneyline prediction
Reconsider those scenarios outlined in the spread. That kind of risk-taking in a close matchup can emphasize the underdog’s moneyline. But even beyond that, a strong argument can be made that the Iowa State Cyclones should be favored despite the Arizona State Sun Devils’ impressive close to the season.
Iowa State vs Arizona State Over/Under prediction
Given an injury to Arizona State’s best receiver, both defenses should be better than the offenses in Dallas, not that such alone should dictate targeting the Under. But add in that fact to the natural reality that the stakes of this game — a Playoff bid on the line — could lead to some conservative early decision-making, and the Under becomes the most logical play.
Iowa State vs Arizona State best bet
Iowa State moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
Much of this choice is based on value. A “best bet” in a game preview is not necessarily the bet most likely to win. It is the bet with the best value in a game. This is the best value in the Big 12 championship game.
Power rankings all favor the Cyclones. That is not enough reason to make this bet, but it is a solid start.
It is not reason enough because Arizona State has closed the season so strongly, not only winning five straight outright but also going 5-0 against the spread in its last five games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 14.2 points. That average was exaggerated by last week’s Territorial Cup blowout, 49-7 as a 7.5-point favorite, otherwise exceeding expectations by an average of merely 9.1 points. “Merely” was meant with sarcasm, just to be clear.
But that version of the Sun Devils has been compromised.
Receiver Jordyn Tyson is now out for the season with an upper-body injury after averaging 8.8 catches and 104.8 yards per game during this five-game winning streak. As great as those numbers are, they are even more impressive when in comparison with Arizona State’s next most productive pass-catcher in the last five games; Chamon Metayer has averaged all of 2.8 catches and 29.8 yards.
The Sun Devils already run the ball 2.1% more often than an average team would in a given game state, relying on running back Cam Skattebo to dictate the offense. And that works, but when Iowa State knows it can focus its entire defense on stopping the run, that approach should betray Arizona State.
In a close game, the game could be lost by losing just one additional possession because a stacked box knocks Skattebo off schedule on a single additional carry. That is the risk of being run-dependent in a game with these stakes. If urgency is needed, the Sun Devils may be out of luck.
The Cyclones are arguably the better team. Facing Arizona State with a now one-dimensional offense, Iowa State offers too much value at plus-money to ignore.
Iowa State vs Arizona State same-game parlay (SGP)
Iowa State moneyline
Under 49.5
Cam Skattebo anytime touchdown
Catching the Under while the total remains a hook over the key number of 49, the logic should not need much further explanation, especially not when doubting Arizona State’s offensive viability right now.
Meanwhile, adding a touchdown from Skattebo to a same-game parlay that endorses both an Under and a Cyclones victory creates an escalated payout despite the fact that Skattebo has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his 11 games and eight of his last nine.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa State vs Arizona State odds
Iowa State vs Arizona State live odds
Iowa State vs Arizona State opening odds
- Iowa State vs. Arizona State spread: Arizona State +1
- Iowa State vs. Arizona State moneyline: Iowa State -115, Arizona State -105
- Iowa State vs. Arizona State Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Iowa State vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cyclones opened as 1-point favorites early on Sunday, jumping to 2.5-point underdogs when the market more genuinely opened as the day went along.
- It remained steady all week, reaching only +2 or +2.5 despite the confirmation of Tyson’s injury, a clear sign he was never expected to play once the injury was seen last weekend.
- The total opened at 50.5 and fell to 49.5 on Wednesday afternoon, not a notable move but anything further would be.
Iowa State vs Arizona State betting trend to know
Iowa State is 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 outright as a one-possession underdog in the last three regular seasons. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Arizona State.
Iowa State vs Arizona State game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Iowa State vs Arizona State latest injuries
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