A place beside idle Texas Tech at the top of the Big 12 standings is on the line Saturday when the No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones visit the West Virginia Mountaineers.
The undefeated Cyclones are tabbed as 3-point road favorites in the college football odds, looking to go 6-0 for the first time since 1938.
Check out my free Iowa State vs. West Virginia predictions and college football picks below, and why a stingy Iowa State defense should be able to hold up and deliver a seventh straight win on the road.
Iowa State vs West Virginia prediction and best bet
My best bet
Iowa State -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Iowa State Cyclones easily boast the top scoring defense in the Big 12, with their 10 points allowed per game the sixth-best mark in the nation. Last time out, they allowed their most points in a game all season in a 43-21 win over Baylor Bears.
The Cyclones are 13th in yards allowed, powered by a passing defense that allows just 133.6 yards per game, the fifth-best total in the NCAA. Their rush defense sits in the middle of the pack, and this unit could see some stress when facing the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are a running machine.
WVU ranks 15th in rushing, piling up 222.8 yards per game. They stay committed to the ground game, averaging nearly 43 carries per contest. Last time out, the Mountaineers pounded the rock 65 times for a whopping 389 yards in a 38-14 demolition over Oklahoma State.
Why I like Iowa State in this spot, though, is because they have an offense that can put them over the top if the defense has its struggles in Morgantown.
Rocco Becht is coming off his best performance of the year, throwing for 277 yards and two TDs over Baylor. He’s connected on two TD passes in all but one game on the season.
West Virginia’s pass defense isn’t exactly stout. They are 100th in pass yards allowed, surrendering 243.4 yards through the air per game. The opposition is taking those yards in big chunks as WVU is Bottom 4 in yards allowed per completion at an explosive 15.2 yards.
Whether it’s a slugfest or perhaps a more offensive showing, Becht can make the plays to put Iowa State over the top. The Cyclones have dominated the head-to-head of late too, winning four of the last five.
Iowa State vs West Virginia same-game parlay (SGP)
Iowa State -3.5
CJ Donaldson 70+ rushing yards
Rocco Becht Over 199.5 passing yards
There should be a healthy dose of CJ Donaldson Saturday, as West Virginia will want to possess the ball and grind Iowa State down. The math is simple: in the three games Donaldson has had 14 or more carries, he’s run for 70+ yards in each.
Iowa State’s defense is great, but they are susceptible to the run. Two backs have crossed the 70-yard rush mark on them this season.
The only game Becht was held to Under 200 yards passing in a game this season was against the Houston Cougars, when he threw for just 153 yards in a 20-0 win.
Iowa State can’t be one dimensional if they expect to leave Morgantown with a win. So the run game will get its due, but Becht is going to have to make some plays with his arm too.
He’ll have a porous pass defense to work against, so this figure shouldn’t be a hard one to hit against WVU.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa State vs West Virginia odds
Iowa State vs West Virginia live odds
Iowa State vs West Virginia opening odds
- Iowa State vs. West Virginia spread: West Virginia +3.5
- Iowa State vs. West Virginia moneyline: Iowa State -150, West Virginia +125
- Iowa State vs. West Virginia Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa State vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cyclones are 3-1 against the spread as betting favorites this season.
- WVU is 2-3 ATS this season.
- The Under has connected in five of the last six head-to-heads.
Iowa State vs West Virginia betting trend to know
The Cyclones are 3-1-1 ATS as a favorite vs the Mountaineers. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs West Virginia.
Iowa State vs West Virginia game info
| Location: | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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