Maryland has answered every challenge this season, beating its two Power Five opponents, West Virginia and Illinois, by a possession apiece while having no trouble with FCS-level Howard or MAC upstart Kent State. Such consistency may not have been expected from the Terrapins in 2021 but arriving a year ahead of schedule happens when a junior quarterback takes the leap like Taulia Tagovailoa may have.
Iowa has been equally as impressive, holding opponents to 11 points per game. Its defense is close to outscoring opponents on its own, with three defensive touchdowns and a safety this season.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Iowa at Maryland on Oct. 1, with kickoff set for 8 ET.
Iowa vs Maryland odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
With two more notable wins than Maryland’s best, Iowa opened as a 3.5-point favorite to no one’s surprise. The Hawkeyes spent some of the week as 4.5-point favorites, but by Wednesday, the number had fallen to an even field goal. The total opened at a low figure typical of any Iowa game, all the way down at 45.5, but it then steadily moved up, reaching 47.5 by Tuesday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Iowa vs Maryland picks
Picks made on 9/30/2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa vs Maryland game info
• Location: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
• Date: Friday, October 1, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
Iowa vs Maryland betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Iowa: Ethan Hurkett DL (Out).
Maryland: Deonte Banks DB (Out), Fa’Najae Gotay LB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Every version of an Iowa trend includes the Under. The last five Hawkeyes games have gone Under the total, as have their last six games in October, a trend that reaches back through fall 2019. Maryland, meanwhile, has also gone Under in its last four conference games, including this season at Illinois. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Maryland.
Iowa vs Maryland predictions
Maryland +3 (-110)
This is less an endorsement of the Terps and more a fade of the Hawkeyes. A 4-0 team should typically have outgained its opponents by more than just 85 yards and one first down. Statistically, Iowa looks much more like a .500 team than an unbeaten one.
The Hawkeyes have lived by turnover luck, forcing nine (compared to four lost) with three of them becoming defensive touchdowns. Against Maryland and Tagovailoa, Iowa may die by a lack of turnover luck. The junior has broken out this year with 335 passing yards per game, 10 touchdowns, and only one interception.
The Hawkeyes’ defense is undeniably legitimate — hence the Under in our next section — but it is not so stellar as to assume it will force two turnovers and score its own touchdown each week, as has essentially been the case thus far this season. Once it falls short of those benchmarks against an opponent of Maryland’s caliber, a loss should soon follow.
Under 47.5 (-110)
No part of Iowa’s offense warrants much praise, gaining only 293 yards per game and converting 35.71 percent of its third downs. The Terrapins’ defense has yet to face an outright challenge — despite Kent State’s expected prodigious output in conference play — but giving up 324.25 yards per game should be enough of an indicator it will hold up against the Hawkeyes anemic attack.
Furthermore, if removing defensive tallies from the ledger, Iowa has scored just 23 points per game, even though it has played two Group of Five teams not known for their defenses (Kent State and Colorado State). An offensive eruption from the Hawkeyes is nearly inconceivable, so this Under may most depend on Tagovailoa’s ball security, an inarguable strength to date.
Speaking of Kent State, the Golden Flashes are the rare common nonconference opponent for these two Big Ten teams. Both Iowa and Maryland covered the spread against Kent State, and both games went Under the total.
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
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