Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Prediction: New Orleans Bowl Odds and Picks

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks will make their first-ever bowl game appearance this afternoon when they take on the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in the Superdome for the New Orleans Bowl.

Jacksonville State found success in its FBS debut, going 8-4 in Conference USA under head coach Rich Rodriguez. That has made the Gamecocks a slight favorite in the college football odds over Louisiana, appearing in a bowl game for the sixth straight year.

While the Ragin’ Cajuns are the more established squad in this matchup, some key injuries may give the Gamecocks the edge. We’ll take a deeper look at today's matchup in our free college football picks and predictions for Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana on December 16.

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana best odds

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana picks and predictions

Louisiana’s appearance in this bowl game is an act of perseverance. Once 5-3, the Cajuns lost three straight games before finally knocking off the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks in their season finale to become bowl-eligible. 

Part of that late-season slump was due to two unfortunate injuries at the quarterback position. Louisiana began the year with Ben Wooldridge as the starter, but he suffered a foot injury early in the third game of the season. That meant that the Ragin’ Cajuns turned to freshman Zeon Chriss, who played admirably over seven games, going 4-3 as the primary starter. 

However, in the final game of that run, Chriss suffered a broken fibula against the Arkansas State Red Wolves. That led Louisiana to turn to fifth-year quarterback Chandler Fields for the remainder of the season. While Fields has played well, throwing seven touchdowns against three interceptions over his three-plus games, he’s also only led the Cajuns to one win over that time.

Fields is not outright bad, especially for the level of play we’ll see in the New Orleans Bowl, but he’s hardly the kind of explosive passer who can take advantage of one of Jacksonville State’s biggest weaknesses. The Gamecocks have been stellar against the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, but teams have been able to touch them up in the passing game. 

Overall, Jacksonville State is allowing just 20.3 points per game and will present a real challenge for Fields and a Louisiana offense that has struggled to make big plays with any consistency over the last four games. Outside of the win over a putrid Louisiana-Monroe team, the Cajuns scored just 24 points per game in their three losses with Fields under center. 

On the other side of the ball, the Louisiana defense has been stout, but that has mostly been due to a good pass rush that has made life difficult for opposing passers. Jacksonville State brings something else to the table: a punishing run game that averages 4.9 yards per attempt on an incredible 47.8 rushes per game. 

Six different players have run for at least three touchdowns for the Gamecocks, which means there’s always a fresh set of legs ready to barrel into a fatiguing defensive line. Malik Jackson is the standout star, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, but just about anyone can take the ball and be effective for Jacksonville State.

While these teams grade out about equally for the year overall, Louisiana has played slightly worse with Fields as quarterback, and this matchup looks great for the Gamecocks. I’m taking Jacksonville State and laying the points.

My best bet: Jacksonville State -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana same-game parlay

Jacksonville State -2.5

Under 59

Zion Webb Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

+340 at DraftKings

I’m pairing Jacksonville State against the spread with a bet on the total, where I’m backing the Under at 59 points. The Gamecocks will run the ball and keep the clock moving, and that should keep scoring low enough not to threaten the total.

Finally, I don’t expect Jacksonville State quarterback Zion Webb to do much through the air. He has thrown just five touchdowns all year, and it’s unlikely he’ll be asked to do much with his arm on Saturday. I’m rounding out my SGP with the Under on Webb’s passing touchdowns prop at 1.5 scores.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana spread and Over/Under analysis

Jacksonville State opened the New Orleans Bowl as a 3.5-point favorite. That number has tightened, with books now split between Louisiana +2.5 or Louisiana +3 as the main lines. Most books are offering equal action at -110 odds on both sides.

The Gamecocks have rewarded backers in their first FBS season, with Jacksonville State compiling an 8-3-1 record against the spread. Louisiana has played closer to the line, posting a 5-7 ATS record on the year. 

I like Jacksonville State to cap its outstanding first campaign at the top tier of college football with a strong performance on Saturday. The Gamecocks should be able to control the pace with their powerful and deep running game, while Louisiana will have a tough time scoring either on the ground or through the air. I’m backing Jacksonville State on the spread.

The total for this game opened at 56.5 points. Bettors have pushed the number up, and the consensus Over/Under is now sitting around 59.5, with a few sites sitting at a flat 59 points instead.

Both teams have flirted with the number all year long. The Under holds a 7-5 edge when Jacksonville State plays, while the Over has a 7-5 record in Louisiana’s games.

I think Jacksonville State will have the best of this game, and that comes down to its balanced running attack that should punish the Cajuns throughout the contest. That also suggests the Gamecocks will be running the clock and keeping the overall score down, though it’s worth noting that they’ve been able to score a lot of touchdowns on the ground against weaker opponents. Still, I’m leaning towards the Under here.

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana betting trend to know

Jacksonville State is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Jacksonville State vs UL Lafayette.

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana game info

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