Kansas State vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Saddle Sore

The Kansas State Wildcats may not look like the all-around juggernaut they were a year ago, but they should still be considered a Big 12 dark horse. Beating up on the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight will not genuinely boost that candidacy, but failing to do so would compromise it. Given how bad Oklahoma State has looked of late, that should not be a concern for Kansas State.

Could the Cowboys pose an issue at home? Ehh, probably not.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State on October 6.

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State best odds

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

Did Mike Gundy sell his soul to beat Texas last season? Did he realize it was his last shot at the Longhorns before they jumped to the SEC and thus cut some deal with a devil to win 41-34 after scoring 17 straight points in the final 16 minutes to escape on top as a 6.5-point underdog?

How else can you explain the absolute misery that has come for Oklahoma State since then? Injuries thoroughly undid the rest of the Cowboys’ 2022. Finishing the season 1-4 sent Oklahoma State to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, losing to a coach-less Wisconsin. Beating Texas was the last time Spencer Sanders threw multiple touchdowns in a garish orange jersey.

Since that upset, Oklahoma State has gone 3-7 straight up, with one of those wins coming against an FCS opponent and another against Arizona State last month. Worse yet, the Cowboys have gone 2-8 against the spread. Again, that triumph over the Sun Devils was hardly a notable accomplishment.

And those are not even the most severe trends underscoring how bad things have gotten for Oklahoma State. Of those 10 games, nine of them have hit the Under. That may seem odd, with South Alabama scoring 33 points on the Cowboys last week, Kansas hanging 37 last November, and Kansas State — perhaps a notable inclusion here, huh? — putting up 48 to start this Oklahoma State downspell. But each of those games still went Under its total. How?

The Cowboys have gone Under their team total in nine of their last 10 games, the exception coming two weeks ago at Iowa State, which was still a 34-27 loss.

Congrats, Gundy & Co., you scored three touchdowns against a below-average defense particularly vulnerable against the pass. Oh, and one of those touchdowns was in garbage time as the Cyclones’ prevent defense nursed a two-score lead.

Kansas State will not provide the same luxuries, not with a rushing defense so strong it regularly forces opponents into obvious passing downs, at which point the Wildcats focus on the issue at hand. Not with a defense giving up quality drives on fewer than a quarter of opponents’ possessions, No. 5 in the country, per cfb-graphs.com. And then, not with a defense that holds opponents to fewer than three points per quality possession, No. 37 in the country.

To put it simply, Kansas State has crafted a bend-don’t-break defense that forces opponents into sustained drives that eventually fail when it matters most. That exact recipe should create nothing but misery for Gundy’s struggling offense.

Make it 10 out of its last 11 to the team total Under for Oklahoma State, dating back to those two Sanders’ touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to beat Texas one last time.

My best bet: Oklahoma State team total Under 20.5 points (-117 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay

Oklahoma State team total Under 20.5

Kansas State -11.5

Will Howard anytime TD

+360 at BetRivers

Kansas State has cracked 40 points in three of its four games this season, with the exception being only 27 points at Missouri. Of the Wildcats’ six quality possessions in that last-second loss, three ended in field goal attempts, making two of them. That was merely a failure. There is no other way to qualify it.

But for this context, imagine if Kansas State had turned one of those made field goals — not even using the miss here, but a make — into a touchdown. Perhaps the first-and-goal at the nine-yard line could have yielded seven points instead of three. Then the Wildcats would have been at 31 points on that mid-September afternoon. Set aside the fact that such would have been enough to win, would have been to keep Kansas State unbeaten, would have been enough to probably put the Wildcats inside the top 15 right now. Instead, just realize that 31 points would be the hook away from covering this spread if also expecting Oklahoma State to fall short of its team total.

That should be the bare minimum for Kansas State, and to establish a baseline, expect quarterback Will Howard to notch a rushing touchdown. The Will Howard anytime touchdown odds may be as low as -114, but even that is not low enough. He has rushed for a score in three of the Wildcats’ four games this season, doing so five times in total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State spread and Over/Under analysis

Sunday saw Kansas State open as a 9-point favorite, quickly moving across two key numbers to -11.5 by Monday afternoon.

Not only has Oklahoma State gone 2-8 ATS in its last 10, but it has fallen short of the spread by an average of 11.4 points per game in that stretch. That average includes the two occasions in which the Cowboys exceeded expectations. Remove those and it balloons to 16.6. Remove two blowouts — 33-7 three weeks ago to South Alabama and 48-0 last year to Kansas State — and Oklahoma State still fell short of bookmakers’ projections by more than a touchdown on average, 7.3 points per game in those other six ATS losses.

The total opened on Sunday at 56.5, quickly falling to 55 and reaching 54 by midweek. Do that same math and recognize the Cowboys have not only hit the Under in nine of their last 10 games, but they have done so by an average of 9.7 points, including the one Over. Remove that and they have deprived the scoreboard of an average of 13.5 points each week.

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know

Kansas State has hit the team total Under in just one of its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs Oklahoma State.

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State game info

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