Kansas hopes to repeat its antics of a week ago and pull off another massive upset when it travels to Provo to face BYU tonight.
The Jayhawks have been very unfortunate, losing five games by a combined nine points. But their upset win over Iowa State last week means BYU can essentially clinch a spot in the Big XII title game if the Cougars remain unbeaten with a victory at home.
I explain why one Jayhawk player should have a big game in my Kansas vs BYU predictions for Saturday, November 16.
Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, with the game airing on ESPN.
Kansas vs BYU prediction and best bet
Who will win?
BYU can’t keep getting away with it. A 21-10 halftime deficit was overcome last week in the Holy War as the Cougars hit a field goal in the final seconds to win. They needed a touchdown in the final seconds to escape at home three games ago against Oklahoma State, a team that punished BYU with its running game.
Kansas has its offense rolling the past few weeks, and last week it knocked off Iowa State by not turning the ball over and ramming it down the Cyclones’ throats. Jalon Daniels had an outstanding game, and a repeat performance will be enough to get another massive upset as they finish what Oklahoma State simply couldn’t.
My best bet
Devin Neal Over 81.5 rushing yards (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
History was made when Kansas knocked off Iowa State last weekend, as running back Devin Neal’s 14-yard run on the Jayhawks’ first play from scrimmage made him the school’s all-time career leader in rushing yards. He enters the game against BYU needing just 49 yards to eclipse the 4,000 career mark — and I expect he will get way more than that before the game is over.
BYU’s pass defense has been elite this season, with only two teams going over 200 passing yards against the Cougar defense in a single game. But they’ve been susceptible to the run, especially in conference play. Big XII foes are averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and are getting 10+ yards on 17.1% of their rushing attempts.
That’s a recipe for success for Kansas, and the Jayhawks will do well to cook up a game plan where Neal and Jalon Daniels hammer the rock down their throats. Then again, it’s what they’ve been doing all conference slate, as the Jayhawks lead all Big XII teams with over 200 rushing yards per conference outing.
The Jayhawks rank sixth in EPA/rush and fourth in late down success, and they rank 15th in average yards to gain on third down. In addition, Kansas is averaging 5.35 yards per Big XII opponent, and they’ve gained 10+ yards on a whopping 26.4% of their carries in six conference games.
More importantly, Kansas has allowed just 3.44 tackles for loss per Big XII game, the fewest in the conference. BYU has the fewest tackles for loss per game in conference play, meaning a Jayhawk offensive line averaging 3.8 line yards per rush should open plenty of holes.
Last week against Iowa State, Neal posted his best PFF rushing grade since the second game of the season. He was running with a purpose, forcing six missed tackles and gaining 57 yards after contact. But most impressive was the fact that he ran for 116 yards on 18 carries without a single run of 15+ yards.
When you compare the Iowa State defense with the BYU defense, it’s like looking into a mirror in a way. They’re elite units against the pass but can be hurt by the run game. Only three teams have held Neal under 100 yards this season, and I’m expecting him to top the century mark again.
Clearing his total of 81.5 should be no problem, which is why I’m making this college football pick two-unit play as he punished a BYU team that allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State in its last home game. And if you use the BetMGM 25% boot, you can get it at +108!
Kansas vs BYU same-game parlay (SGP)
Devin Neal Over 94.5 rushing yards
Devin Neal anytime touchdown
Jalon Daniels Over 39.5 rushing yards
For our same-game parlay, we’re going to ladder Neal a bit here and tack on some extra yards and take him to gain at least 95 on the ground.
Neal has found paydirt in all but two games this season, with rushing touchdowns in all six Big XII games. He’s punched it in eight times in conference play and will do so again against a BYU defense that has allowed multiple rushing scores in two of its last three games.
Daniels has been playing his best football of the season the past three games, and he’s rushed for 58+ yards in each of those outings. He’s hit double-digit rushing attempts the last two games, and he’s facing a BYU defense with one of the worst sack rates in college football. With no negative plays to hurt his total, 40 should be easily attainable.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kansas vs BYU odds
Kansas vs BYU live odds
Kansas vs BYU opening odds
- Kansas vs. BYU spread: BYU -2.5
- Kansas vs. BYU moneyline: Kansas +115, BYU -135
- Kansas vs. BYU Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Kansas vs BYU spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened with BYU being favored by 3.5 points, but moved to -2.5 on Wednesday and again on Friday morning.
- Kansas is 3-0 ATS in its last three games, after failing to cover in its first six. BYU has failed to cover in two of its last three after covering six straight to open the year.
- The total opened at 55.5 but has come up by two points, with a full point shift on Friday afternoon.
- 69% of Covers Consensus users are backing BYU on the spread, while 59% are taking the Over.
Kansas vs BYU betting trend to know
The Over has been a moneymaker recently for both teams, going 5-1 in the last six Kansas games and hitting in five straight for BYU. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas vs BYU.
Kansas vs BYU game info
| Location: | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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