Prepare for a fantastic night of C-USA football when the New Mexico State Aggies welcome the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to Las Cruces, NM.
Tuesday night’s clash is a quick turnaround for both sides, and my Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State predictions expect that turnaround to cause some offensive fireworks.
Read on as I explain why I like the Over with free college football picks for October 15.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 48 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
We should see some Tuesday night fireworks in Las Cruces when the New Mexico State Aggies welcome the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs for a C-USA matchup.
Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t think twice about playing the Under. Defense is the Bulldogs' calling card. They boast the top rushing defense in the conference, the fifth-best passing defense, and surrender the fewest points per game (21.6).
The Bulldogs also get to QBs (2.25 sacks per game) and have held opponents to 23 points or fewer in four of their five contests. That’s a stout defense they possess, and this Bulldogs' defense meets one of the worst offenses in C-USA.
But here’s the thing: Tuesday night won’t be a typical game for either side. New Mexico State has a slight edge as they’ve had at least one additional day to prepare. The Aggies' last game was Wednesday, but the Bulldogs played on Thursday and must spend an extra day traveling.
That could hurt the Bulldogs. I understand New Mexico State is lousy; the Aggies commit too many turnovers and their offense can’t find the end zone, but New Mexico State does run the ball decently enough. Backup quarterback Parker Awad is competent enough if Wake Forest transfer quarterback Santino Marucci can’t go.
By comparison, New Mexico State can’t stop the run or the pass, which will be a problem. The Aggies have allowed 48+ in three of their last four, and Bulldogs freshman quarterback Evan Bullock slung five TD passes last week against Middle Tennessee State. We know they can and will score the football.
That’s why I’m playing the Over. The Aggies won’t stop the Bulldogs, no matter how many days they have to prepare. Louisiana Tech has surrendered 21+ in three of their last four because their second-half defense lacks focus. New Mexico State can put points on the board, so take the Over on a reasonable total.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 48.5
New Mexico State +14.5 (alt. spread)
New Mexico State is 0-5-0 ATS across their last five. They’ve been awful, but Louisiana Tech has dropped two of its last three as the favorite, and the Aggies should cover the alternative +14.5 spread.
The Aggies sometimes struggle to score in the opening 24 minutes but are among the best second-half scoring teams nationally (17). That number spikes to 18.5 at home, and they face a defense surrendering 12.8 second-half points, which climbs to 17 in their away jerseys.
That’s why I believe the Aggies can cover. The Bulldogs are 2-2-0 ATS this season as the favorite, but their lack of recovery and prep time, paired with their lack of second-half defensive focus, leads me to take the alternative points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State odds
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State live odds
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State opening odds
- Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State spread: New Mexico State +10.5
- Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State moneyline: Louisiana Tech -410, New Mexico State +330
- Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread hasn’t moved much since opening. Louisiana Tech is 3-2-0 ATS, while New Mexico State is 1-5-0 against the number.
- Last season's clash at Louisiana Tech was a close one. New Mexico State scored 17 unanswered 2H points, and while the Aggies lost the game, they covered the number.
- Over/Under lookahead totals opened as high as 52.5 (-110) but re-opened at 48.5 (-110). That number has dipped as low as 48 (-110) at some of our best sportsbooks.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State betting trend to know
Louisiana Tech has hit the Over in three of its last four away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State game info
| Location: | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-15-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN U |
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