Louisiana vs Marshall Odds, Picks and Predictions: Thundering Herd Smash Reeling Ragin' Cajuns

Week 7 of the 2022 college football season kicks off tonight in the Sun Belt.

Louisiana (2-3) looks to have taken a step back in the program’s first year after Billy Napier left for Florida and looks to snap a surprising three-game losing streak.

Marshall (3-2) made waves earlier this season with a victory over Notre Dame and looks to make some noise in the program’s first year in the Sun Belt.

Read our college football picks and predictions for Louisiana vs. Marshall below to find out where the best betting value lies. 

Louisiana vs Marshall best odds

Louisiana vs Marshall picks and predictions

Marshall is still looking for its first Sun Belt win, having fallen 17-6 to Troy in its lone conference game thus far.

It was evident in the program’s 26-21 victory over Notre Dame that this could be a quality football team with a chance of competing for a conference title. However, the results on the field haven’t been spectacular since then. The Herd have failed to cover the spread in each of the last three games while going 1-2 straight up.

The good news is that their opponent, Louisiana, has been struggling lately as well. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 0-2 in conference play and have lost three straight games overall. They’ve taken a big step back after posting a 13-1 record a year ago and are averaging just 5.0 yards per play offensively while allowing 5.2 defensively. 

Louisiana should find it difficult to reach the end zone against a stout Marshall defense allowing only 16.2 points per game. Louisiana has scored just 17 points in each of its last two games, managing 276 total yards against South Alabama and 354 against Louisiana Monroe. 

The Thundering Herd rank second in predicted points added (PPA) defensively and seventh in success rate. The defensive line has been a wrecking crew, helping this unit rank first nationally in havoc rate. They’ve been effective against the rush (22nd in rushing success rate) but have been elite against the pass, ranking first in passing PPA.

The offense hasn’t been anything to speak of lately, but the good news is that quarterback Henry Colombi might be available for this contest after getting knocked out of the Gardner-Webb game.

This is an offense that managed 364 yards and a win over a fearsome Notre Dame defense, 547 yards against Bowling Green, and 421 yards against Gardner-Webb. They have a star to lean on in Khalan Laborn, who ranks fourth nationally in rushing yards (731) despite playing one fewer game than the other players atop the leaderboard. Laborn will be the best skill player in this game and gives Marshall a star to trust.

Marshall has looked like the better team this season and is a touchdown favorite for good reason.

My best bet: Marshall -7 (-115 at FanDuel)

Louisiana vs Marshall spread analysis

The Ragin’ Cajuns have already lost two Sun Belt games this season, which is especially concerning when you consider that the program lost two conference games in the last three years under Billy Napier.

This program was expected to remain a Sun Belt contender under Michael Desormeaux, but they’ve looked pedestrian at best to this point in the season. One thing working in their favor is that they’ve performed well against good competition, going 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. 

Marshall has looked like the superior team this season, averaging 5.5 yards offensively while allowing just 4.7 defensively. They will need to buck some trends in this spot, as they are just 8-25 ATS in their last 33 home games and 6-18 in their last 24 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Marshall’s win over Notre Dame is the most impressive thing that either of these teams has done this season. They seem to be headed in the right direction, but a win Wednesday night would establish some confidence as proof that they can win in this conference.

Louisiana is no longer riding high after a Sun Belt championship a year ago, as the betting market has lined them as a 7-point underdog in this contest. The results on the field haven’t been pretty this year, so the line seems warranted. 

Louisiana vs Marshall Over/Under analysis

Marshall’s fearsome defensive front seven has led the team to a No. 1 ranking in havoc, No. 16 ranking in defensive line yards, and No. 22 ranking in stuff rate.

This should help them slow down a run-centric Ragin’ Cajuns attack that has been less effective this year than in the past. After rushing for 194.2 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry a year ago, Louisiana is mustering just 117.2 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush in 2022.

Chris Smith was supposed to be the leader of a vaunted rushing attack, but he has managed only 258 yards and two rushing scores so far this year. 

Taking the Under has been a pretty safe play in Louisiana’s conference games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 39-15-1 to the Under in their last 55 Sun Belt games. 

Marshall’s offense has been fine, averaging 423.6 total yards per game led by an effective rushing attack that managed 224.4 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.

Laborn has emerged as a star offensively and could find more success Wednesday against a Ragin’ Cajuns defense that ranks 90th in rushing PPA. The Herd rank eighth in rushing rate, which should help the clock keep ticking in this one. 

The Herd have been trending to the Under as well, going 6-1 to the Under in their last seven home games. 

Louisiana vs Marshall betting trend to know

Louisiana is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisiana vs. Marshall.

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