Coming off a miracle win, Louisville looks to make a rough life a little bit rougher for Florida State.
Louisville escaped last week, pulling a victory from the jaws of self-imposed defeat against Central Florida. Such luck is unlikely to come the Cardinals way twice in a row, even if Florida State is off to its worst start since Bobby Bowden’s first season in 1976.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Louisville at Florida State on Sept. 25, with kickoff set for 3:30 ET.
Louisville vs Florida State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Cardinals opened as 2.5-point favorites, but that has steadily moved to 1.5. Jumping over 2 may not be a key number, but the masses still appear to favor the Seminoles finding their first win of the season. The total jumped from 61.5 to 62.5 for some of the week and then returned to that opening number with a few stray 60.5 numbers available for the discerning shopper.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Louisville vs Florida State picks
Picks made on 9/24/2021 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Louisville vs Florida State game info
• Location: Doak Cambell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
• Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN 2
Louisville vs Florida State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Louisville: Shai Werts WR (Out).
Florida State: Robert Scott OL (Questionable), Thomas Shrader OL (Questionable), Baveon Johnson OL (Questionable), Maurice Smith OL (Questionable), DJ Williams RB (Questionable), Leonard Warner DE (Questionable), Emmett Rice LB (Questionable), Byron Turner DE (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS following their last five losses. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisville vs. Florida State.
Louisville vs Florida State predictions
Louisville -1.5 (-110)
The Seminoles’ struggles since 2017 are well-documented, and anyone who watched even a half of Florida State in 2019 or 2020 remembers how bad those offensive lines were. Entering 2021, there were Tallahassee hopes that such a glaring weakness had been remedied, and it had been … at the top line.
The Seminoles still have little applicable offensive line depth, and naturally, that depth has been exposed this season. Comparing Florida State’s starting line against Notre Dame in the season opener and last week against Wake Forest, only the right guard and right tackle started at the same positions just two weeks apart. With starting left tackle Robert Scott and starting left guard Maurice Smith held out, center Devontay Love-Taylor moved to left guard and second-stringers stepped in at left tackle and center. Now that second-string tackle, Baveon Johnson, is also questionable.
The headlines pointed out the Seminoles’ six turnovers, but the bigger issue against Wake Forest was the Florida State running game, managing just 113 on 25 carries, a 4.5 yards per rush average (sacks adjusted), while giving up four sacks and nine tackles for loss. Even if the Seminoles did not routinely turn over the ball, the drives hardly had sustainable life, anyway.
Louisville should enjoy those same luxuries. Florida State simply does not have an adequate offensive line these days — this year it is because of injuries rather than the entire roster struggling, unlike the last few seasons — and anytime a Power Five opponent lines up against a vastly inferior offensive line, a spread less than a field goal is enticing, to say the least.
Louisville Over 31.5 points (+105)
This thought further stems from the Seminoles’ offensive line struggles. If ignoring the Cardinals’ 30-3 win against FCS-level Eastern Kentucky, they are averaging 33 points per game against FBS opponents this year.
Neither Ole Miss nor Central Florida had trouble scoring, combining for 78 points. Florida State struggling to do so will not just make for the possibility of a blowout because the Seminoles cannot keep up, but also because the quick and unproductive drives will routinely set up Louisville with strong field position, not to mention Florida State’s turnover woes.
The Cardinals should get a couple of chances at quick scores, making this team total a value play.
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