Louisville vs Georgia Tech Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Yellow Jackets Hang With Brohm's Cardinals

Welcome home, Jeff Brohm. Welcome back to where you started 30 years ago. Welcome home, the prodigal son. So begins the Jeff Brohm Era for the Louisville Cardinals, even if a trip to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets may not be the most dramatic way to commence his tenure.

College football odds see Louisville open its season as a touchdown favorite on the road, a hefty ask for a roster that has undergone significant turnover since Brohm took over after Scott Satterfield’s surprising departure for Cincinnati.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Georgia Tech tonight, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

Louisville vs Georgia Tech best odds

Louisville vs Georgia Tech picks and predictions

What follows is not meant as a criticism of Jeff Brohm’s offense. It has worked. Most notably, all college football fans should remember Purdue’s upset of No. 2 Ohio State back in 2018 when Rondale Moore gained 194 yards on 14 touches, scoring twice as he ran by the Buckeyes all night.

But it is not an offense that can be dropped into a roster and expected to work instantly. So Brohm brought in a new roster, pulling in nearly 30 transfers along with 16 freshmen. Yes, that is half of Louisville’s roster.

Brohm needs new players to run a new offense, but he still may be trying too much, too quickly. Six offensive line transfers should tell you enough. Offensive linemen from Duquesne, Rutgers, Purdue, or Houston will not create a perfect pocket for Cal transfer Jack Plummer, formerly a Purdue quarterback, a player who knows Brohm’s offense. Let’s set aside the point that Brohm and Plummer produced only middling results in their time together — going 5-9 from 2019 to 2021 when Plummer threw at least 19 passes.

Instead, let’s ask how much of a change Plummer can create behind that offensive line.

Louisville passed the ball only 28.3 times per game last season, in part because it had an excellent running game, gaining 3.14 yards per carry before contact against Power Five teams (outside of garbage time), No. 3 in the country. If considering game state, the Cardinals ran the ball more than 100 other teams last season.

Purdue, meanwhile, averaged 41.6 passes per game, actually a four-year low. Considering game state, the Boilermakers ran the ball less often than all but eight other teams in the country. Only the likes of Mike Leach’s Mississippi State were more reluctant to run the ball than Brohm’s Purdue.

Turning Louisville’s offense into a Brohm offense will require an entire offensive shift. Hence the new offensive linemen, the new quarterback, and a handful of receiver transfers. This may be possible in the transfer portal era ... but in Week 1?

That may be too much of an ask.

Particularly against Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets pass defense ranked No. 28 in expected points added per pass against halfway through last season, taking 0.124 points off their opponents’ expected final scores per passing play, a mark noted for coinciding with Georgia Tech’s idle week. At the end of the season, that ranked No. 3 in the country. Opponents passing the ball against the Ramblin’ Wreck under interim head coach Brent Pry failed more often than not, far more often.

And now Brohm wants to put the ball in the air every chance he can with a new roster, a quarterback that previously brought Brohm only bumbling success, and facing a defense that has some proven progress against the pass. Good luck with that, Louisville. This may be a tough start to the Brohm Era.

My best bet: Georgia Tech +7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Louisville vs Georgia Tech same-game parlay

Georgia Tech +7.5

Under 49.5

Jack Plummer Over 257.5 passing yards

+600 at FanDuel

Including the Under there should not be too surprising. Doubt in Louisville’s offense will yield more concern surrounding the total points scored. Plus, Georgia Tech is far from an offensive powerhouse, even with quarterback transfer Haynes King.

Then why include Plummer’s passing yardage prop with an Over play? Because Brohm will throw it that much.

In those 14 games at Purdue when Plummer threw at least 19 times — a data set accounting for injuries and some position competitions, not alternative offensive approaches — he threw for more than 300 yards five times, with another four occasions of 237 passing yards or more.

In the eight of those games against Big Ten opponents, the Boilermakers averaged 29.9 points. Only once did they surpass 31.

Yes, reaching 31 here would likely doom that Under 49.5 leg, but that is also why this would pay out 6-to-1. Anything in the reach of 24-27 points should allow for all aspects of this to cash, and it is all possible as long as Georgia Tech’s defense renders Brohm’s aerial attack inefficient.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Louisville vs Georgia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis

This line spent some of last week at -8.5 or -8 in Louisville’s favor before ticking down late in the week. Again, that was a week ago. Since then, it has hung consistently at -7.5.

Pry took over for the dispatched Geoff Collins four games into the 2022 season. During Pry’s interim status, Georgia Tech went 5-3 against the spread, including 5-1 as an underdog. The one ATS loss came by a point, 24-point underdogs losing at Florida State by 25 points.

This total hit the boards at 50 last week before ticking down to 48.5 on Monday. The total in the above single-game parlay was slightly juiced, to be clear.

Louisville vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know

Louisville posted five straight Unders to end last season, a reflection of that ground-bound offense and perhaps an indication of why Satterfield bolted for a lateral move. Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Georgia Tech.

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