Coming off its biggest win of the season, the LSU Tigers take on an Arkansas Razorbacks squad that also managed to upset a Top-10 team the last time it was on the field.
LSU is playing its best football of the season, and my LSU vs. Arkansas predictions expect the Tigers' offense to be the difference in this SEC matchup Saturday night.
Read on to see why one of the plays on your college football picks card this weekend should be geaux Tigers!
LSU vs Arkansas prediction and best bet
My best bet
LSU -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
After losing their season opener to USC, the LSU Tigers faded into the background for a few weeks — but its OT upset win over Mississippi last week has the Tigers ranked No. 8 and looking like a legit College Football Playoff contender.
Brian Kelly has a rich history of losing high-profile, non-conference openers and then rallying to put together a strong season. I think that’s what’s happening with the Tigers, who have covered the spread in each of their last two games, but it’s a little surprising to see this spread shifting in the Arkansas Razorbacks direction.
LSU opened -4.5, which I would have had a tougher time feeling good about backing, but winning by three against a Razorbacks team whose starting quarterback is banged up?
Sign me up.
Arkansas QB Taylen Green exited with a knee injury during the upset over Tennessee two weeks ago, and while he did try to return, he clearly wasn’t himself. Sam Pittman hasn’t confirmed whether or not Green will play against LSU, saying his status is still to be determined. It does seem likely that he will play, but how effective will he be? The biggest plus with him is his mobility, and if he can’t be impactful in the run game, that changes a lot for LSU’s defense.
Arkansas is just 71st in EPA per dropback, with Green committing nine turnover-worthy plays this season and posting an adjusted completion rate of just 68%, per Pro Football Focus. If LSU can focus on stopping the run, the Razorbacks could have a tough time scoring — and they’ll need to score to keep up with LSU’s attack.
The Tigers’ offense is fifth in SP+ and 14th in EPA per dropback, thanks to LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who has been one of the best passers in the country this season and is building NFL buzz with every game.
He’s not alone either; he has a deep pass-catcher group, led by Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, that will challenge an Arkansas secondary ranked 45th in EPA per dropback.
The Tigers are poised to score at least 28 points, and I’m not sure Arkansas is capable of putting up more than 24.
LSU vs Arkansas same-game parlay (SGP)
LSU -2.5
Garrett Nussmeier 275+ passing yards
Ja’Quinden Jackson anytime touchdown
Nussmeier has been on a tear, throwing for at least 285 yards in every game this season, including more than 330 in each of his last three outings. LSU’s offense is pass-heavy, and he should have no problem throwing for 275.
He’s 11th in the country in big-time throws this season (13) and isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield with a 10.2-yard average depth of target. Arkansas’ offense is the opposite, relying heavily on a run game carried by Ja’Quinden Jackson.
The Utah transfer is eighth in the country in rushing touchdowns (10) and has scored in every game this season. His 368 yards after contact and 33 forced missed tackles both rank Top 30 in the nation.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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LSU vs Arkansas odds
LSU vs Arkansas live odds
LSU vs Arkansas opening odds
- LSU vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas +4.5
- LSU vs. Arkansas moneyline: LSU -185, Arkansas +55
- LSU vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
LSU vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis
- LSU opened as a 4.5-point road favorite, with the spread steadily dropping down to just -2.5 at most books.
- The Tigers are just 2-4 ATS this season but have covered in their last two, while Arkansas is among the best at 5-1 ATS.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 58 but has since moved down to 56.5 at most sportsbooks.
- LSU is 2-4 betting the Over and Arkansas is 3-3.
LSU vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Arkansas has gone Under its team total in four straight games (+4.20 Units / 81% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Arkansas.
LSU vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
LSU vs Arkansas latest injuries
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