LSU vs Florida Prediction and Picks for College Football Week 12

The LSU Tigers-Florida Gators rivalry hasn’t been much of one lately, with the Bayou Bengals doing all the biting, winning five straight meetings.

The Tigers are favored to make it six straight. but are they in for a letdown with the realization they’ve likely been eliminated from the College Football Playoff with last week’s crushing loss to Alabama?

My LSU vs. Florida predictions break down why I think the Gators D might have some teeth in this one creating a low-scoring matchup, at least early on.

LSU vs Florida prediction and best bet

My best bet
Under 26.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

It was never going to be easy for the LSU Tigers, but Brian Kelly had his team set up with a clear path heading into last week’s game against Alabama. Win out and at the very least have a spot in the College Football Playoff and if things fell the right way, maybe snag a spot in the SEC title game.

But that included beating Bama and what happened was a Jalen Milroe beatdown under the lights in Death Valley last Saturday night.

Now, with three losses on the season, including back-to-back blowout conference losses, the CFP feels like a long shot for the Bayou Bengals. So, a team with waning motivations, whose best players could be thinking a little more about their upcoming draft status could be in a tricky spot, heading on the road for a rivalry game at the always raucous Ben Griffin Hill Stadium.

Meanwhile, the Florida Gators are also coming off consecutive conference losses but you can give them a little more leeway. The Gators were tied with Georgia in the fourth quarter without their starting quarterback before feeling the wrath of Texas last time out.

But 5-4 Florida might have a little more motivation in this one. The school’s AD shocked the college football world when they announced that Billy Napier would remain the head football coach for next season. So, one more win makes the Gators bowl-eligible, and they would love to get it vs. rival LSU.

For Florida, that starts with slowing down Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense. The Tigers have been one-dimensional this season, leaning on Nussmeier’s arm. LSU enters this game ranked 14th in success rate on dropbacks but 108th in success rate on rushes. 

That plays into the hands of this Gators defense which has been more vulnerable to the run than the pass, ranking 59th in defensive success rate on dropbacks compared to 122nd on rushes.

Unfortunately, we are unsure if the Gators' offense will be at full strength in this one. QB DJ Lagway hasn’t played since the first half of the Georgia game. Reports out of Gainesville state that he is practicing this week.

If Lagway was 100 percent he could be a problem for an LSU defense that has struggled with mobile QBs, but he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. If he can’t go we’ve seen Aidan Warner complete just 40.4% of his passes for 198 yards and three picks in the last game and a half. And the way to attack this LSU defense is through the air. 

So basically, it will be difficult for both teams to move the ball in this one and my college football picks expect there to be a feeling-out process in this one, so give me the first half Under.

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LSU vs Florida odds

LSU vs Florida live odds

LSU vs Florida opening odds

• LSU vs. Florida spread: Florida +5
• LSU vs. Florida moneyline: LSU -185, Florida +155
• LSU vs. Florida Over/Under: 55.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

LSU vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

• The college football odds opened with Florida getting five points and early bettors have seen some value in the home underdog with the line moving to 4.5.
• LSU has dominated this matchup in recent years winning the last five meetings in a row and going 5-0 ATS in the process. Florida would love to snap that skid, plus it will be interesting to see what LSU's motivation is like after basically seeing its season come to an end last week.
• The total hit the board at 55.5 and that's where it remains as of Thursday afternoon.
• LSU has been a surprisingly good Under bet this season going 3-6 O/U while Florida sports an opposing 6-3 O/U mark. I am on the first-half Under and would lean toward the full-game Under as well.

LSU vs Florida betting trend to know

Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of its last 11 games for +2.55 Units and a 21% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Florida.

LSU vs Florida game info

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