LSU vs Florida State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Powerhouses Battle in 2023 Debut

Us college football fans are a lucky bunch that this game was scheduled three years ago and now both the LSU Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles are on the cusp of breakthroughs to national contention.

The athletic departments could hope for such a payoff, but they had no way of knowing both teams would be in the Top 10 of the 2023 preseason AP poll. Think back to the 2020 preseason. Neither LSU nor Florida State received so much as a single vote in the AP poll.

It's partly a coincidence that both the Tigers and the Seminoles are surging these days, and it’s partly a reflection of the transfer portal opening up meeting the implementation of NIL rights.

But those are aspects of the offseason. This, this is the season. This is Labor Day Sunday. This is the second straight year these two blue bloods meet in a standalone game.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for LSU vs. Florida State on Sunday, September 3.

LSU vs Florida State best odds

LSU vs Florida State picks and predictions

There is a want here to skip any gambling advice and instead focus on what can be learned about LSU’s offense against this specific defense. A want to point out that Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels turned a lot of decent pockets into pressures and scrambles last season. A want to note that is not anecdotal, but measured and something likely to repeat itself in 2023.

A want to recognize Florida State’s strong defensive line, led by touted NFL prospect Jared Verse and three notable transfers, including tackle Braden Fiske from Western Michigan. A want to wonder just how strong LSU’s offensive line will be — and it should be strong — despite having no known depth.

But that deep dive will not yield a best bet. It will simply gush over Verse and marvel at the thought of Daniels being protected from him. And if the Tigers do protect Daniels, then LSU will have no trouble on Sunday night.

Given the lead time for this matchup, LSU may still have no trouble on Sunday night.

In some respects, 2022 was a disappointment for the Tigers. Yes, even as they went 10-4 and reached the SEC championship game. Brian Kelly made some mistakes he had not made in years.

In his last four years at Notre Dame, Kelly went 25-14-1 against the spread as a favorite, going 40-0 outright in those games. He figured out how to win the games he was supposed to win, an underrated and underappreciated skill in college football. His first year in Baton Rouge did not enjoy that consistency, going 5-4-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as a favorite.

But that should have been expected. Kelly was taking over a program in turmoil and turning over much of the roster. Things are more stable now. Look no further than finding a new special teams coordinator after repeated gaffes with that unit cost the Tigers this exact matchup in 2022.

With months to prepare, leaning into Kelly’s know-how makes sense. Mike Norvell has done an impressive job rebuilding the entire Seminoles program in relatively short order. The progress along both lines, in particular, deserves praise. Yet, for all the preseason hype surrounding Florida State, it went just 6-4 ATS as a favorite last season. 

In Norvell’s three seasons in Tallahassee, the Seminoles are merely 8-9 ATS as favorites. To this weekend’s point, Florida State is 6-5 ATS as a one-possession underdog during Norvell’s tenure, including 2-1 last season. The Seminoles have gone 3-8 outright in those moments, including 1-2 last year, the one win coming courtesy of LSU’s botched special teams. Managing 6-5 ATS as a one-possession underdog yet 3-8 outright speaks to some close-game difficulties that could arguably be pinpointed on coaching.

These rosters have both turned over a bit since last season, the transfer portal working its magic. But for the most part, they are what they were, just a bit older and more coalesced. The hype is a bit abundant with each, perhaps too much so.

But the difference in the known commodities of head coaches is stark. Brian Kelly has proven himself in games he is supposed to win. Mike Norvell is still inconsistent in that regard, even as an underdog.

In a game within a field goal, siding with a coach with that proven record as a favorite makes some sense. Just remember to watch how Daniels handles Verse’s pressure for the long-term lesson.

My best bet: LSU -2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

LSU vs Florida State same-game parlay

LSU -2.5
Under 55.5
Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

+547 at FanDuel

The above was not meant to disparage Norvell. He will give Kelly a test. And much of that test will focus on the Florida State defensive line. It is genuinely a top-tier unit.

Betting on the Under but the Daniels’ Over passing touchdowns prop are both focused on that defensive line. Daniels creates his own pressure as often as not. And he then has to rely on his receivers to showcase their scramble-drill skills.

Daniels averaged 7.51 yards per pass attempt last season, down from his career number of 8.05. He threw 17 touchdowns against just three interceptions. In his career, he's thrown 49 touchdowns in 43 games. And that is where the value here comes in.

Daniels will either be forced out of the pocket or force himself out of the pocket, but he still throws for chunk gains on a regular basis. In a normal game flow, that should yield one designed touchdown and one improvised one while keeping the LSU offense from finding a regular rhythm.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

LSU vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread has hung around a field goal all summer. All summer. That underscores how the market sharpens itself in the dead months of June and July. The total remained rather steady, as well, until the last week or so, falling from 57.5 to 55.5 at most books and 56.5 at some others.

That total feels lofty. Blame the new clock rules, blame this praise of Florida State’s defensive line while still endorsing LSU to win and cover, blame Week 1 jitters in primetime, whatever the source, this total feels lofty.

These two combined for 47 points in their season opener last Labor Day weekend. If turning this weekend’s spread and total into an expected score of 30-27 in LSU’s favor, then the Tigers fell short of that number five times last year, with another three landing at 30-32 points, while Florida State fell short of 27 points in three games with a fourth at just 28 points.

They are both more than capable of a sluggish showing to start the season.

LSU vs Florida State betting trend to know

LSU went 3-2 outright in one-score games last year, while Florida State went 4-2 in those moments, including its special teams-focused upset against the Tigers in Week 1. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs. Florida State.

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