Marshall vs UConn Prediction: Myrtle Beach Bowl Odds and Picks

The Connecticut Huskies are in a college football bowl game. Wait, what? Let’s say that again. UConn is in a bowl game. That's right, your eyes are not deceiving you.

The Marshall Thundering Herd are hefty favorites in this afternoon's Myrtle Beach Bowl, so the Huskies’ celebration may only last until kickoff, but for now, their turnaround from 1-11 to bowl eligible in just one season deserves much praise.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Marshall vs Connecticut on December 19, with kickoff set for 2:30 ET.

Marshall vs UConn best odds

Marshall vs UConn picks and predictions

The challenge to handicapping in bowl season is sometimes a game that you would otherwise prefer to ignore lands on a day all to itself. As much fun as it is to repeatedly yell, “UConn is in a bowl game!” few Huskies games were actually watched this season. Connecticut at Florida International hardly spurred intrigue. UConn relying on five turnovers to beat Boston College, 13-3, while gaining only 280 yards was more a comedy than a victory, and that comes from someone who watched its fourth quarter holding a Huskies money line ticket at +255.

And season-long Marshall interest fell by the wayside when the Herd gave up 21 first-quarter points to Coastal Carolina on that same October day, losing 24-13. That single quarter cost Marshall the Sun Belt East Division, and that comes from someone with a futures ticket on the Herd winning the Sun Belt at +500.

The paper Huskies against the frustrating Herd? The instinct is to say no thanks.

But “No thanks” is not an option when there is only one bowl game on a weekday afternoon.

Then what’s the thought process? It’s to ascertain the strongest unit on the field. Fortunately, that determination could not be easier in this instance. It is Marshall’s defense. The Herd gave up 16.2 points per game this season and 4.55 yards per play. That latter figure ranks No. 6 in the country.

Advanced metrics are not needed when a team is in the Top 10 in yards allowed per play. There is no version of football that meaningfully skews that statistic.

Now to focus these thoughts toward this matchup. UConn has a disastrous passing offense, thus rushing for nearly twice as many yards this season as it passed for. When factoring in sacks as passing yards and attempts, the Huskies average 5.23 yards per rush and 4.43 yards per pass. If Connecticut’s offense is to produce at all, it will be on the ground.

Unfortunately for the Huskies’ first postseason appearance since 2015, Marshall’s rush defense can be considered among the best in the country. The Herd rank No. 3 in expected points allowed per rush, opponents losing an average of 0.24 points from their expected point total each time they ran against Marshall.

With Connecticut averaging 39.17 rush attempts per game, Myrtle Beach should provide a holiday recipe to fade the Huskies’ offense. Once the novelty of playing in a bowl game wears off, UConn’s stalled ground game may simply pack up and go home.

My best bet: UConn team total Under 13.5 (-105 at bet365)

Marshall vs UConn spread analysis

Favored by 10, Marshall will not need to score much to cover. That said, four times this season the Herd was held to two touchdowns or fewer. Those were all better defenses than Connecticut’s, but Marshall failing to rampantly produce is not unprecedented.

But the best offense can be a good defense. The Herd keeping UConn in check should create a massive field-position advantage. For an offense that generally struggles on early downs — No. 110 in early downs EPA, per cfb-graphs.com — shorter fields will help cut down on the need to constantly move the chains.

If Marshall covers this two-score spread, it will be as much about its defense as its offense, both in preventing the Huskies from getting into the end zone and in setting up the Herd offense for success.

Marshall vs UConn Over/Under analysis

A Monday afternoon with a total of 41.0 may not be the most exciting, but how often do you watch a Thursday Night Football game that can only dream of 41 points?

Besides, if Marshall shuts down Connecticut, that may provide its own entertainment, a flashback to more familiar times, when the Huskies were woeful. Record aside, they still largely are.

The Herd is more likely to win this game 42-0 to crack the Over than Connecticut is to provide genuine assistance in chasing that total. And that is not very likely, given Marshall averaged 24.2 points this season, a number that drops to 21.4 when ignoring a 55-3 season-opening route of FCS-level Norfolk State. The Herd otherwise topped 30 points exactly once, a 34-31 loss at Bowling Green.

Maybe this will feel like a primetime NFL game, after all.

In-play microbetting trends for Marshall vs UConn

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Marshall

Offensive score Yes: 5/28 (17.9%)
Offensive score No: 23/28 (82.1%)

Punts: 15/28 (53.6%)
TDs: 4/28 (14.3%)
FG attempts: 2/28 (7.1%)
TOs: 7/28 (25%)

Marshall had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

UConn

Offensive score Yes: 7/36 (19.4%)
Offensive score No: 29/36 (80.6%)

Punts: 23/36 (61.1%)
TDs: 6/36 (16.7%)
FG attempts: 1/36 (2.8%)
TOs: 6/36 (16.7%)

UConn had three drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Marshall vs UConn betting trend to know

Seven of Marshall’s last nine games went Under the total, while Connecticut had a six-game streak of going Under the total before two Overs to close the season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Marshall vs. UConn.

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