Memphis (6-6) barely made it, but the Tigers are headed to their ninth straight bowl game as they face the Utah State Aggies (6-2) in Dallas this afternoon.
The Aggies successfully qualified for their 10th bowl game in 12 years, although 2022 wasn’t quite the campaign they had a year ago en route to a Mountain West Championship. Blake Anderson’s squad needed five wins in its last seven games to even reach bowl eligibility.
Which team will come out on top for this matchup?
Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Memphis vs. Utah State on December 27.
Memphis vs Utah State best odds
Memphis vs Utah State picks and predictions
As of the time of this writing, NFL opt-outs and transfer portal moves aren’t expected to have a large impact on this game. The biggest news is that Utah State will be without its top two running backs as Calvin Tyler Jr. (1,043 rushing yards) opted out, and backup Robert Briggs is sidelined due to injury.
Memphis has taken a step back as a program, posting back-to-back 6-6 seasons. Its bowl game a year ago was cancelled due to COVID, so getting a seventh win would sure be appreciated to avoid the program’s first losing season since 2013.
An offense averaging 35.1 points per game paved the way for the Tigers, albeit the strength of the team’s wins has to be called into question. Among their six wins, only one (North Texas) came against a bowl team, while all six losses came to bowl teams.
Utah State went 11-3 a year ago, winning a Mountain West Championship in its first year under head coach Blake Anderson. The momentum came to a halt in 2022, as the Aggies went 1-4 to start the season before rallying to make a bowl game.
Star quarterback Logan Bonner was never fully healthy after getting injured in last year’s LA Bowl, and he played in just four games this season before being announced out for the year. Cooper Legas has shown potential in Bonner’s absence, although the results have been up-and-down. Legas is averaging 7.0 yards per attempt this year while tossing 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
I’m targeting Memphis for the First Responder Bowl. The Tigers have much more offensive firepower, led by sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan (3,275 passing yards, 19 touchdowns), and have only lost to teams that I would favor over Utah State.
The Aggies are fortunate to even be bowl eligible, struggling in wins over lowly UConn and Hawaii while posting ugly losses to FCS Weber State, as well as UNLV. Utah State’s offense never fully clicked as it did a year ago, and the team will be without its best-skill player and down to its third-string running back.
I find little reason to find confidence in an Aggies team that has been stumbling for much of the year.
My best bet: Memphis -7 (-110 at bet365)
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Memphis vs Utah State spread analysis
The spread actually opened as high as -10.5 in some spots before dropping down to -7. While the early line may have been wide, I believe it's settled in a spot that favors Memphis.
The Aggies have struggled mightily on offense this season, so it's difficult to have much faith in them matching Memphis on the scoreboard. Utah State ranks 116th in EPA per play, 112th in Success Rate, and 112th in Explosiveness. To put it another way, this offense struggled to move the chains and doesn’t generate many big plays.
Memphis, meanwhile, ranks 65th in EPA per play and 57th in Success Rate. Henigan will be the best offensive player in this game and gives the Tigers an immediate leg-up.
The Tigers have been the better team overall, posting a +0.5 yards per play differential (5.8 on offense, 5.3 on defense) compared to the Aggies’ ugly -0.9 differential (4.9 on offense, 5.8 on defense).
Those aren’t numbers you’re used to seeing during bowl season — Utah State has simply been really bad this season.
Memphis vs Utah State Over/Under analysis
The total currently sits at 61.5 across all locations, so this is expected to be a relatively high-scoring bowl game. Memphis averaged 35.1 ppg while posting 420.7 total yards per game. Those are impressive numbers, although nothing about their advanced stats profile stands out as this being an elite unit.
The Tigers don't run the ball well (84th in EPA per rush) and struggle along the offensive line, ranking 104th in Line Yards and 102nd in Stuff Rate. Utah State’s strength defensively is up front, where it ranks 22nd in Stuff Rate, so the Aggies should feel decent about their chances on a down-to-down basis.
Utah State generally gives up far too many big runs (117th in Rushing Explosiveness), but that isn’t exactly Memphis’ bread and butter offensively, as the Tigers rank just 92nd in Rushing Explosiveness.
Similarly, Memphis doesn’t have a huge edge on a down-to-down basis throwing the ball. Utah State ranks 32nd in Passing Success Rate defensively but — stop me if you’ve heard this before — allows far too many big plays, ranking 124th in Passing Explosiveness.
When Utah State has the ball, it won’t have the advantage anywhere. Memphis isn’t anything special defensively, ranking 77th in EPA per play, 88th in Success Rate, and 42nd in Explosiveness.
The Tigers’ primary deficiency is in a weak secondary (95th in EPA per pass, 109th in Passing Success Rate), but the Aggies have been woefully inefficient in all areas of offense. Breaking down these matchups leads me to favor the Under.
Memphis vs Utah State betting trend to know
Utah State is 1-5 in games away from home this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. Utah State.
Memphis vs Utah State game info
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 27, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Memphis vs Utah State weather
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