Miami is certain to win on Friday night, but whether it’s the Miami from Ohio or the Miami from Florida will be determined on the field when the Redhawks and Hurricanes meet up for their season openers.
The Redhawks are happy to have their starting quarterback returning to the fold after Brett Gabbert was injured after four games a season ago and missed the rest of the year. He returns to lead a team that sees many key players returning and hopes to spring an upset on the road.
For the Hurricanes, it’s about improving on what was a very disappointing 2022 season. Head coach Mario Cristobal brought in multiple high-level transfers and a solid recruiting class — and expectations are high among the fanbase.
We help you pick which Miami will cover the spread in our Miami (OH) vs. Miami (FL) college football picks for Friday, September 1.
Miami (Ohio) vs Miami best odds
Miami (Ohio) vs Miami picks and predictions
What happens when a Power Five team brings back just three offensive starters, has questions at one of the most important positions on the offensive line, and has shown a recent history of struggling against inferior talent? You get a situation perfectly suited to take the underdog to cover a three-score spread.
That’s exactly what our best bet entails, as we’re taking Miami (Ohio) of the north to stay within 16 points. The Miami Hurricanes have quite a bit of pressure to perform this season, and it starts with a defense that woefully underperformed a season ago. They’ve brought in a new defensive coordinator, and quite a bit of transfer talent — especially in the secondary — in hopes of preventing the big plays that plagued them a season ago.
The Canes have questions at left tackle, which is bad news for quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Expected to start despite a finger injury to his throwing hand, Van Dyke dealt with injuries last season and is working with a new center and a new guard. While both are high-level transfers, it’s never easy to break in multiple linemen, especially in the first game.
For a defense that returns seven starters from a unit that led the MAC in points allowed, that could be a significant advantage. The entire front line is back after a season where it was strong against the run.
The Redhawks have a true playmaker at linebacker, and they replaced their biggest loss on defense as they brought in Southern Cal transfer Jayden Williams to replace cornerback John Saunders after he transferred to Ole Miss.
Last season, the Redhawks defense held Kentucky’s offense to just 30 points, not counting a 100-yard kick return touchdown that blew open a 3-point game at halftime into a 24-point game. They led Cincinnati 17-7 early in the second quarter on a neutral field, before falling apart before halftime and eventually losing by 21.
Why am I bringing up these results? First, it shows Miami of Ohio can hang around for a while, which is always important when trying to cover the spread. Second, the new clock rules benefit them. The Redhawks have a strong power-run game, one of the weaknesses of the Canes’ defense last season. That's a gamechanger for a program that lost three games a year ago in which they led after three quarters.
Miami of Florida is the better team. The Canes have more talent and more depth and will win outright, but I don’t see them running away with this. They’re playing a team with a strong, cohesive defensive unit and they ranked 96th in scoring offense last season while being held to 17 or fewer points on five different occasions.
While I don’t think that happens here, I do think their offense takes long enough to find a consistent rhythm that it keeps the game close. The Redhawks will try to rely on their running game to shorten the game, and have two experienced quarterbacks who bring different options to the table and will keep the Canes’ defense on their toes.
In the end, The Canes win by two touchdowns but don’t cover the number.
My best bet: Miami (Ohio) +16.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Miami (Ohio) vs Miami same-game parlay
Miami (OH) +16.5 (-110)
Under 43.5 (+135)
Miami (FL) to win race to 15 points (-850)
We’ll dive into why shortly, but I feel strongly that this game will not only go Under, but will do so by at least two points. That’s why we’re adding a little oomph to our same-game parlay at bet365 with the Under at 43.5.
In addition, we’re going with a very juicy play of the Canes to reach 15 points before the Redhawks. While the more southern Miami will take a bit of time to get up to speed, I don’t see them giving up the big plays that plagued them a season ago on defense which enables the Canes to get past two touchdowns before their opponents.
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Miami (Ohio) vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
While we’re not going with Miami FL to cover the spread, there’s little doubt its talent on both sides of the ball will be enough to come away with an outright win. At -800, they’re significant favorites as the spread would indicate. However, it’s come down significantly, as they opened at -1,100 to win.
The spread opened at 17.5 points and was quickly bet down a point as many people jumped on the number. While having that extra point is beneficial, we’re still quite confident in the 16.5 being covered by the Redhawks.
The Canes haven’t covered the spread in their last six games against an unranked opponent, and they were not very good at home last season. They hung 70 points on Bethune-Cookman, but they only beat Southern Miss by 23 in a game they were favored to win by 27.5 and led by just three at halftime. The Canes also lost at home to Middle Tennessee State by two touchdowns. We’ll take the points here.
As for the total, it opened at 46 or higher and has been bet down slightly to 45.5 but I’m still taking the Under. Yes, the Canes added weapons on offense and they’ve got Van Dyke back, but this isn’t a big-strike offense.
He’s more adept at short passes, and the Canes struggled at times to run the ball last season. They’ll need to grind out some possessions against a strong front seven that will look to keep everything in front of them.
On the other side, the Canes’ defense has improved via transfers and incoming freshmen, and should prevent some of the bigger plays they allowed a year ago. The Redhawks know their best bet is to run the ball and that will limit possessions.
They ran the ball 483 times last season compared to 337 passing attempts, including 32 attempts against Kentucky, 36 against Cincinnati, and 44 against Northwestern. They won’t abandon it no matter the score, and that’ll be helpful in keeping the score down and the Canes’ offense on the sidelines a bit longer.
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Miami (Ohio) vs Miami betting trend to know
The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when favored against unranked opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Miami (Ohio) vs Miami.
Miami (Ohio) vs Miami game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Friday, September 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
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