Miami vs Clemson Odds, Picks and Predictions: Hurricanes Don't Have Much Wind

The Clemson Tigers have sealed their path to the ACC title game, but their Playoff hopes could use some style points, and the Miami Hurricanes have been courteous in giving those out to opponents this season.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Miami vs. Clemson on November 19, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET.

Miami vs Clemson best odds

Miami vs Clemson picks and predictions

Accusing Miami of quitting on the season is painting with too broad a brush. These are rosters of 85 players. No matter how disappointing a year may be — and this one unquestionably has been for the 5-5 Huricanes — some of those players will still care each and every week.

That showed last weekend, with Miami upsetting Georgia Tech, 35-14. The verb there should still stand out: upsetting. Anyone an underdog to the Ramblin’ Wreck needs to be looked at with a dubious eye no matter their result in Atlanta.

That was, in fact, the first time this season the Hurricanes covered the spread against an FBS foe, not to mention the first time they scored more than 21 points since early October. Ignore tallying 24 against Gene Chizik’s laughable defense — maybe this stray at Chizik’s return to coaching is unnecessary, but prepare to guffaw if North Carolina somehow makes the Playoff — and Miami had not scored more than 21 points against any Power-Five opponent this season before they racked up the Wreck.

Those offensive woes hit their nadir in the last month. Scoring 30 points total in three games against Duke, Virginia, and Florida State is a sign of a problem. For that matter, putting up 20 at Virginia Tech — the game immediately preceding that dreadful stretch — is hardly something to be proud of.

At the core of the problem is not the Hurricane quarterback, but rather the offensive line protecting him. Consider how Duke, Virginia, and Florida State did bringing down Miami’s passer compared to how they have done the rest of the season:

Duke: Six sacks for 57 yards against Miami, 20 sacks for 120 yards in nine other games.

Virginia: Three sacks for 19 yards against Miami, 27 sacks for 148 yards in nine other games.

Florida State: Three sacks for 29 yards against Miami, 26 sacks for 163 yards in nine other games.

Duke and Florida State, especially, outpaced their usuals.

Sacks do not get enough credit in modern football. They cost an offense not only yards, but also a down. They influence field position. And the threat of them alters playcalling.

Heading into this fall, only 8% of drives including a sack resulted in a touchdown in the NFL in the last five seasons. The college stat may not be directly comparable, but that reality gives an idea of how costly a sack is to an offense.

And Miami is giving them up.

Clemson’s defensive line hasn’t dominated this season as was expected in the preseason, but it is still averaging 3.29 sacks per ACC game in seven contests. Clearly, that should be the minimum against the Hurricanes. But let’s round it up to four.

That should be four Miami possessions that don’t result in trips to the end zone, no matter what else occurs. Then there will be a few more in a natural sense. Stick to the most exact definition of “few” and that equals seven likely lost possessions.

Can the Hurricanes score on every remaining possession? That may be necessary to hit the Over on their team total.

My best bet: Miami team total Under 14.5 (-125 at FanDuel)

Miami vs Clemson spread analysis

Asking Clemson’s offense to cover a 19-point spread is bold. Basic math off that Miami team total Over/Under suggests the Tigers are expected to score at least 33 points. They have done that just three times against Power Five foes this season, one of which was in the season opener against Georgia Tech and another in an overtime shootout at Wake Forest.

Miami’s woes are many, and it has given up 45 points three different times this season, including against Middle Tennessee State, but it has not consistently failed the Hurricanes. They did hold Drake Maye and the Tar Heels to 27 points.

That spread puts a bit too much faith in Clemson’s offense as far as this handicapper is concerned.

Miami vs Clemson Over/Under analysis

While 48 points may not be many, it’s either seven touchdowns or at least eight scoring drives. Generously factor in a defensive or special teams score, and those reaches are still aggressive. Clemson’s defense will be the best unit on the field on Saturday, and its offense has not shown enough dynamism to argue for a rout.

The only thing keeping a broad Under 48 from being the above best bet was a fear of Tigers sophomore running back Will Shipley erupting. He is talented enough to show out for 200 yards on any given week, and doing so would threaten this total.

Miami vs Clemson betting trend to know

Miami is 1-8 ATS against FBS opponents this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Miami vs. Clemson.

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