FOX Friday Night Football Player Props & Best Bets: Michigan State vs Oregon

Prop bet #1: Montorie Foster Over 34.5 receiving yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

The Michigan State Spartans have been derided a bit for their lack of pass-catching talent, and that’s understandable. It was evident going into the year that this team badly needed someone to emerge as a reliable go-to option through the air, and so far it has been redshirt senior Montorie Foster Jr. stepping up in a big way. 

The veteran leads his team in targets (38) with 14 more than the next-closest pass-catcher (tight end Jack Velling) and double that of any other wide receiver. Foster hasn’t necessarily turned these looks into elite production, but his 217 receiving yards through five games is still good for an average of 43.4 — nearly 10 yards higher than his receiving prop. 

This might qualify as a tough matchup against a staunch Oregon Ducks defense that checks in at seventh in success rate, but there is one main positive to note. Michigan State is a massive 23.5-point underdog, meaning the Spartans will likely have to throw a decent amount if they are playing from behind. 

Foster has exceeded 35 receiving yards in four of his last five games. The lone miss came a week ago against Ohio State when the Spartans ran a season-low 50 plays while throwing only 25 passes. 

Smith used to employ a bully-ball approach against the Ducks, famously calling for 31-straight rushing attempts in Oregon State’s comeback win over the Ducks in 2022. The thing is, that approach won’t quite hit the same — the Beavers had one of the nation’s top offensive lines, whereas the Spartans rank 118th in line yards and 119th in stuff rate while “paving the way” for the 110th-ranked rushing unit in terms of EPA per rush. 

Prop bet #2: Dillon Gabriel Over 279.5 passing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

Michigan State’s secondary is having a world of trouble covering anyone, ranking 82nd in both EPA per pass and passing success rate while checking in at 122nd in passing explosiveness. The fine folks at PFF grade them as the 95th-ranked coverage team. 

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel should be licking his chops with this juicy matchup at home on a Friday night. I can guarantee you that Dan Lanning hasn’t forgotten about the prior 2022 embarrassment at the hands of Smith and the Beavers, so I expect him to keep his foot on the gas pedal for all four quarters of this game. 

Watching Oregon’s Week 5 games against UCLA firsthand from the sidelines, it was evident that the Ducks coasted to the finish line after racking up a big early half lead. They’ll be decently well-rested and prepared to keep the offense moving and grooving. 

Gabriel is averaging 298 passing yards this season and this is a soft matchup, so his passing yardage prop of 279.5 seems a bit low. The Ducks rank 15th in passing success rate and Gabriel is a veteran quarterback who should keep his offense on track. 

Going back to last season, Gabriel has topped this number in nine of his last 14 starts. I’ll bet on the left-handed gunslinger posting at least 280 passing yards on Friday night. 

Prop bet #3: Aidan Chiles Over 0.5 passing touchdowns

Best odds: -130 at BetMGM

Aidan Chiles was a big get in the transfer portal for Michigan State when he followed his head coach from Corvallis to East Lansing, ranking a four-star transfer per 247 as the second-best signal caller on the market. 

It’s been a shaky first season as the main man. Chiles has tossed five touchdowns to eight interceptions while throwing the second-most turnover-worthy passes (14) of any quarterback in the country. 

Still, I think it’s a step too far to price his passing touchdown prop at 0.5 with payable juice on the Over. The projected game script calls for Michigan State to be trailing for the majority of this game, so Chiles will have every opportunity to throw for a score. 

In Smith’s days at Oregon State, his quarterback threw for at least one touchdown in 57 of the 69 games that he coached. Chiles has been very inconsistent so far, but he has one of the strongest arms I’ve seen on tape this year and is capable of making throws that many other quarterbacks would never dream of attempting. 

Oregon has surrendered at least one passing touchdown in 23 of the 31 games during the Dan Lanning era. It’s fairly irregular for a game to go by with one team getting completely blanked, and I’m not betting on it here. 

Chiles has a lot to iron out with his game but it’s evident that he possesses NFL traits and has a very high ceiling. He’s not a lost cause by any means, even if this line seems to indicate otherwise.