The Illinois Fighting Illini look for their first ranked-vs-ranked win in 33 years when they host the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday.
My Michigan vs. Illinois predictions tell you why betting on the Under of Jack Tuttle's passing yards is the best bet you can make for this tilt.
Get all the deets in my college football picks for Saturday, October 19 — and for more picks in this game, see our favorite Michigan vs. Illinois player props.
Michigan vs Illinois prediction and best bet
My best bet
Jack Tuttle Under 175.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Calling Michigan’s passing attack nonexistent wouldn’t be fair, but it’s not far from the truth. Through three conference games, the Wolverines have completed just 30 passes on 55 attempts, with only Iowa having fewer attempts in Big 10 play — and the Hawkeyes have completed 34 of theirs.
In fact, Michigan is averaging just 4.2 yards per pass attempt, the lowest of any Power 4 school against conference opponents. And in their only road game of the season, the Wolverines completed just 13 of 25 attempts for a measly 113 yards in a 27-17 loss
The man responsible for the majority of throws in that game was Jack Tuttle, who will make his first start of the season against Illinois. Last season, Tuttle attempted 17 passes, completing 15 of them. Those passes averaged 8.7 yards per completion.
In order to reach his total in this game of 175.5 yards, Tuttle would likely need to complete between 17 and 20 passes. And if he needs to complete that many throws in this game, it likely means Michigan is in serious trouble.
The Wolverines know their best course of action is to run the ball early and often. Illinois allows 4.9 yards per run, 105th nationally, and Big 10 opponents average 4.83 yards per tote. Since conference play began, Michigan has led all Big 10 teams with 42 rushing attempts per game.
Only in their loss to Texas has Michigan seen a quarterback top 175 yards, with Davis Warren throwing for 204 on 22 of 33 passing. But the Wolverines trailed 24-3 at halftime in that game, gaining just 80 yards on 23 carries.
Penn State beat Illinois by throwing for just 135 yards and rushing for 239 with an average of 5.4 yards per carry. Purdue nearly upset the Illini last week by running 32 times for 239 yards. Michigan knows where its bread is buttered, and Tuttle will hand off much more than he drops back to throw.
Michigan vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Kalel Mullings Over 84.5 rushing yards
Luke Altmyer Over 249.5 passing yards
Over 44.5
Kalel Mullings saw his 100-yard rushing streak end in the loss to Washington, gaining just 49 yards on 14 carries. Prior to that, he had averaged 18.7 carries and 141 yards per contest in wins over Minnesota, USC, and Arkansas State.
Every P4 school Illinois has faced has seen its starting back top 70 yards, with three of them clearing the century mark. Purdue even had two players go for 100+ last week, with quarterback Ryan Browne gaining 118 yards.
Mullings has been the more reliable back this season over Donovan Edwards, and I expect he’ll see at least an even share of the carries as Michigan runs the ball 40+ times.
The Illini have one of the worst red zone defenses in college football, and Michigan has yet to fail to score when getting inside the 20. On the other side, the Illini are punching it in at a high rate as well. Altmyer has thrown 14 touchdown passes, with five of them coming on throws of 20+ yards downfield.
Michigan’s secondary has been suspect, and I don’t see the low-scoring affair many are anticipating. The Wolverines have allowed opposing quarterbacks to top the 250 passing yard mark in three of its four games vs. P4 opponents, and Quinn Ewers threw for 246. Altmyer will clear that mark as well in an exciting game and an electric atmosphere.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Illinois odds
Michigan vs Illinois live odds
Michigan vs Illinois opening odds
- Michigan vs. Illinois spread: Illinois +1.5 (-115)
- Michigan vs. Illinois moneyline: Michigan -115, Illinois -105
- Michigan vs. Illinois Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Michigan vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis
- Michigan is favored by 3.5 points, with the public moving the line quickly after it sat at -1.5 on Monday.
- I think Michigan is getting too much credit here. The Wolverine defense was abused at times by Minnesota and USC, and Washington beat them by stopping the run and slinging it around.
- The total of 44.5 has moved up by three points from opening at 41.5 on Sunday. The Illini have gone Under in four of six games, but only once has their total been lower than this number.
- Michigan has allowed 27 points to each of its last three opponents, and Illinois is coming off a 50-49 overtime win over Purdue. Neither of these defenses are built to stop what the other team’s offense excels at, and there will be points in this affair.
Michigan vs Illinois betting trend to know
Michigan has covered the first quarter spread in 10 of its last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Illinois.
Michigan vs Illinois game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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