Michigan vs Iowa Odds, Picks and Predictions: Kinnick Stadium Houses More Hawkeyes Chaos

The Michigan Wolverines have yet to face a staunch test this season, but if traveling to Kinnick Stadium promises one thing, it's that the Iowa Hawkeyes will test your every weakness.

Well, Kinnick may promise two things, that test and a lack of points. Even Michigan’s strong offense couldn’t boost a pregame total in Iowa.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Michigan at Iowa on October 1, with kickoff set for 12:00 ET.

Michigan vs Iowa best odds

Michigan vs Iowa picks and predictions

The Covers.com edit desk may send this thought back to the handicapper. It is — let’s acknowledge it from the top — a poor betting process. This is a thorough no-no.

However, this is Iowa football. This is Kinnick Stadium. If ever there is an exception to every rule in college football gambling, it is handicapping that mess, that chaos, that cluster-Ferentz.

There is more logic to the coming thought than that. It is a common handicapping approach: If favoring a low Under like 42 when the spread is double digits, than also favor the underdog to cover the spread. They are correlated enough; it is the rare moment a parlay has a touch of credence.

It makes sense. For a moment, grant the Hawkeyes two touchdowns. One of them will obviously come from special teams or defense, because this is Iowa football in the 2020s, and the other presumably will be the result of a short field. Either way, 14 points. Now Michigan would need to score 25 points to cover this spread, and the game would still stay Under by a field goal. Those hypothetical 25 points would be two more points than the Hawkeyes have given up to their previous four opponents combined.

Nothing the Wolverines have done this season should inspire confidence they can score that much on Saturday. Congrats, Michigan, you averaged 55 points against Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn. You could have found stiffer challenges from the FCS.

Then the Wolverines scored 34 points against Maryland. The first of those touchdowns came on a drive that started on the 10-yard line. Michigan’s three other touchdowns all came on explosive plays.

Know what Iowa will not do? Give up the ball on the 10. Know what else? Allow repeated explosive plays. This is the Hawkeyes' defense, after all.

So the Wolverines should be stifled a bit. Then if considering this parlay, the question becomes, will Iowa be able to score enough to stay within 11? Well, was that 14-point accommodation before all that absurd? Maybe that makes you uncomfortable, given the Hawkeyes scored just seven points against South Dakota State to open the season. (See, Michigan, told you some FCS foes can be worth playing.)

Here is where the bad process comes in. Now, to be clear, this handicapper does not make suggestions in this space that his own money does not follow, but this handicapper also does not always make smart decisions in life. He has been known to chase a pint of Hamm’s with a shot of Malört. This may be as poor a choice, though that beer-and-a-bump has proven to be effective in its desired pursuit. This thought could be, as well.

Teasing both the spread and the total of this game creates a 17-point cushion for Iowa with a wanted Under of 48. Finding that at even odds feels like a luxury.

This is not the same Michigan team that ran roughshod over Iowa in the Big Ten title game last year, 42-3. The Wolverines' defensive line is nowhere near as ferocious, and its offense has yet to find a groove, FCS blowouts aside. If anything, those blowouts may further the Iowa thinking here, as Michigan does not yet know what it can lean on when the going gets tough.

Creating a 17-point spread for the Hawkeyes should all but assure that half of this teaser. Since 2017, Iowa has lost just three times by more than 17 points. The Ferentz brand of football prevents getting blown out.

This 6-point teaser is more intended to protect against a fluke touchdown knocking this game Over 42 points. A bolder approach would lean into the traditional parlay at +265 odds.

My best bet: 6-point, 2-team teaser — Iowa +17, Under 48 (+100 at Caesars)

Michigan vs Iowa spread analysis

An emphasis should be placed on how hard it is to blow out Iowa. Admittedly, the Hawkeyes lost three games last season by 17 or more, but before that, they had not fallen by more than 11 points since a 2017 trip to Wisconsin.

Last year’s Iowa offense was worse than usual, which is obviously saying something in Iowa City, but even when it is just moderately effective, Ferentz’s version of football protects against blowouts. It is — to be blunt — Kirk Ferentz’s business model.

Michigan’s first worthwhile competition resulted in the Wolverines falling 10 points short of covering the spread. In a very real way, no matter what the stats and thus the power rankings may say, Michigan remains an unknown in 2022.

Michigan vs Iowa Over/Under analysis

Last week’s Iowa feature offered the lowest total of the last decade... literally. And it took two defensive touchdowns and a boinked field goal in the closing minutes, from a distance where Ferentz would typically be expected to punt, to crack that Over.

The week before that, the Hawkeyes had to play until nearly 3 a.m. ET for the game to end 27-0, again boosted by Iowa’s defense and special teams.

Continuing to advocate for this Under begs the Hawkeyes to block two punts in the end zone for touchdowns, but making any bet out of fear of such a fluke — and even in Kinnick Stadium, that would be a fluke — would be a worse process than the above teaser.

Tapping into expected points added figures, Iowa’s offense belongs somewhere behind Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn, comically enough. But its defense fits in at No. 6, despite having already played two Power Five teams.

Michigan ranks No. 1, per cfb-graphs.com, but its laughable schedule renders that somewhat dubious. That doubt aside, the defenses in this game drive both teams, and that fact alone makes it clear, 24 points should win this game.

Michigan vs Iowa betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Michigan’s last five games and 3-1 in Iowa’s four games this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Iowa.

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