Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Never Mind Spartans, Wolverines Are the Phalanx

This rivalry was given some extra juice with allegations of the Michigan Wolverines going to great lengths to steal signals from their upcoming opponents. Whether there's any truth to the charges, the Michigan State Spartans will take on a challenge as massive college football odds dogs, despite reportedly briefly considering otherwise earlier this week.

This rivalry needed no added stakes given how last year’s game ended, with an all-out fracas in the Michigan Stadium tunnel after the Wolverines’ 29-7 win. What will this follow-up bring?

Let’s ponder that in our free college football picks and predictions for Michigan vs Michigan State on October 21.

Michigan vs Michigan State best odds

Michigan vs Michigan State picks and predictions

It’s not just that Michigan’s defense is good. It’s that it is comically good. Maybe it’s because of the sign stealing, but Occam’s razor suggests the Wolverines are just defensively sound.

And that is an understatement.

In seven games, Michigan opponents have finished just 3.3 drives per game in plus territory and only 1.6 inside the 30-yard line. No one has yet to take a snap inside the 10-yard line against the Wolverines.

Think about that for a moment. Sure, Michigan has given up five touchdowns, but the shortest among them was a 20-yard UNLV rush well into garbage time. There has been no first-and-goal against the Wolverines, not a single time where a non-explosive rush found the end zone.

Sure, the seven opponents have all been pretty terrible — the best offense, per SP+ ratings, has been UNLV’s at No. 73 in the country, followed by Rutgers at No. 76 and Minnesota at No. 77 — but seven games is still enough of a sample size to credit Michigan’s discipline. For this week’s context, Michigan State ranks No. 86 in SP+ offensive ratings.

On 11 opposing trips inside the plus-30-yard line, the Wolverines have given up just 16 points while forcing two turnovers and three turnovers on downs. Even when opponents should score, they tend not to.

It takes explosive plays to score against Michigan, Rutgers notching a 69-yard touchdown pass just a minute into that game, or Nebraska enjoying a 74-yard rush during garbage time. Unfortunately for the Spartans, explosive scores are not in their repertoire. 

Through five games against FBS competition, Michigan State has managed two explosive touchdowns, both as short as an explosive play can technically be: 12-yard rushes. Both came on drives that began in plus territory, last week’s tally against Rutgers actually beginning at the 12-yard line.

If you haven’t figured it out already, this is trending toward a best bet that doubts the Spartans’ offense, but before committing to it too strongly, let’s consider what the chances are Michigan State is the beneficiary of more short fields. Call them slim, given Michigan has turned over the ball five times through seven games, three of which came against Bowling Green in a rather inexplicable showing from Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy. In six other games, Michigan has gifted only two turnovers.

So, arguably the nation’s best defense goes up against an offense incapable of an explosive play while its offense protects the ball. That is a recipe for a team total Under, no matter how low the number has fallen.

My best bet: Michigan State team total Under 10.5 points (-118 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Michigan vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Michigan State TT Under 10.5 
Under 47 
Michigan first half -11.5

+350 at BetRivers

Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country. Not in terms of player speed, but in terms of getting off the next snap. Service academies think the Wolverines are plodding.

That reality has been baked into totals by now, but it should still be acknowledged when considering an Under of 47 despite Michigan’s offense. It’s averaging 39.4 points per game and 45 points in Big Ten play.

Given the heat of this rivalry — remember, criminal charges followed last year’s meeting — and this week’s drama of the supposed signal-stealing operation, perhaps the Wolverines will want to get out of East Lansing quicker than usual. Perhaps Jim Harbaugh will pack things up earlier than expected, run out the clock, finish this game in less than three hours. (Two Michigan games have already accomplished that; its longest game lasted 3:14.)

In other words, there is off-field reason for the Wolverines to get out to an early lead and then rely on their defense to stymie any worries the rest of the evening. Michigan is giving up 6.7 points per game this season, including 7.75 in four Big Ten games. Only Minnesota has cracked double digits this season against the Wolverines, with 10 points.

With that in mind, asking Michigan to pour in more than five touchdowns on a weekend it should want to get out of town early may be too bold a request. But it should enjoy an early lead. The Wolverines have led by 14 at halftime in each of the last two weeks and 28-0 at Nebraska before that. Rutgers caught Michigan off-guard in the first minute and those McCarthy interceptions limited scoring early against Bowling Green, but otherwise, the Wolverines have dominated first halves.

Even with those two struggles, Michigan is averaging a 16.4-point halftime lead. And to reiterate from earlier, yes, the Wolverines’ opponents have been terrible, but Michigan State is hardly much better.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

Michigan opened as a 23-point favorite on Sunday, a number that rose to -24 quickly and -24.5 for some parts of Monday before settling at -24 for much of the week. After starting the season seemingly indifferent to hefty spreads, the Wolverines have covered three straight and gone 3-0-1 ATS in conference play.

The total opened at 49.5 before dropping to 48.5 on Sunday and 47.5 on Monday. Thursday movement saw 45.5 become the standard, presumably an indictment of Michigan State’s offense even as the sign-stealing wonders surfaced.

Michigan vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh has gone 4-4 outright against Michigan State, giving up a combined total of 24 points in his last three wins, never more than 10 points. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Michigan State.

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