Michigan vs Penn State Picks and Predictions: Big Noon Snooze

Despite the gut punch that was the Wolverines' loss to Michigan State, Michigan is still very much in contention in the Big Ten East.

Penn State, meanwhile, isn't in that mix but it can absolutely play spoiler down the stretch, starting with the Nittany Lions' playing host to Jim Harbaugh's crew. 

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Michigan at Penn State on Saturday, November 13.

Michigan vs Penn State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Michigan began the week as a one-point underdog at most books, but by midweek the game had become a pick’em and around Thursday, the line had jumped the fence entirely and favored the Wolverines by 1.5 points. Without a number anywhere near as key as 0, the total hardly moved at all, opening at 48.0 and rising to 48.5 on Monday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Michigan vs Penn State picks

• Michigan -1.5 (-110)
• First Half Under 24.0 (-110)

Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Michigan vs Penn State game info

• Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Michigan vs Penn State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Michigan: Andrel Anthony WR (Questionable), Ronnie Bell WR (Out), Blake Corum RB (Probable), Donovan Edwards RB (Questionable)
Penn State: Devyn Ford RB (Questionable), Ta’Quan Roberson QB (Questionable), PJ Mustipher DT (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under has cashed in six of Penn State’s last seven games in November as well as in five of its last six conference games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Penn State.

Michigan vs Penn State predictions

Michigan -1.5 (-110)

In a relatively even matchup, some naturally defer to the home team, but the more pertinent wonder is which team has more to play for. In this case, that’s clearly Michigan. The Wolverines can justifiably still dream of the Playoff, while Penn State’s greatest remaining ambition is to finish 9-3 and enjoy a bowl before New Year’s. A three-game losing streak through October doomed the Nittany Lions’ 2021 more than was realized in real-time.

Penn State’s downfall coincided with a season-ending injury to defensive tackle PJ Mustipher more than it did to quarterback Sean Clifford’s absence late at Iowa. Without Mustipher, the Nittany Lions are particularly susceptible to rushing attacks, most dramatically getting gashed for 357 yards by Illinois a week later and then giving up 161 on 34 carries, a 4.74 yards per rush average, to Ohio State on Halloween Eve.

Michigan is not necessarily the country’s strongest run team, but it would rather rush than pass. That comfort against Penn State’s struggling defensive front should be enough to provide the Wolverines an edge on Saturday.

First Half Under 24.0 (-110)

Name the metric, and these two defenses excel in it. To the current exact concern, they both rank in the Top 10 in scoring defense this year.

To add to that, neither offense thrives on explosive plays.

The second half may become sloppy or misguided if one or the other has just a 10-point lead, but the first half should be an exercise in plodding drives and draining time. And playing the first-half line means the funds will be back in your bankroll that much faster to work with the rest of the afternoon.

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