Mississippi State is not the usual victim of madness at Jordan-Hare Stadium — those most notable and absurd moments are generally reserved for Georgia or Alabama.
But that doesn’t mean nothing out of the ordinary should be expected Saturday. It is still Auburn, and the Tigers are still led by world-class improvising chaos-machine Bo Nix.
Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Mississippi State at Auburn on November 13, with kickoff set for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Mississippi State vs Auburn odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Auburn opened as a 5.5-point favorite and that line never moved this week. That made the total’s drop to 50 after opening at 50.5 almost seem noteworthy. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Mississippi State vs Auburn picks
Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mississippi State vs Auburn game info
• Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mississippi State vs Auburn betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Mississippi State: None to report.
Auburn: Zion Puckett S (Probable), Jeremiah Wright DT (Out), Malcolm Johnson WR (Probable), Tar’varish Dawson WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this annual series, and the Under is 7-2 in the last nine. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Auburn.
Mississippi State vs Auburn predictions
Auburn -5.5 (-110)
Let’s make an admittedly questionable decision and put some faith in Tigers quarterback Bo Nix. Known for his wild decisions — that lead to costly mistakes as often as absurd successes — Nix rarely puts together consecutive bad games. And last week’s 20-3 loss at Texas A&M certainly qualified as a bad game, with Nix’s gift of a fumble leading many highlight reels as the Aggies ran it back for a decisive score.
Leaning on a quarterback in no small part because he is coming off a poor performance is a risky handicap, but any handicap involving Nix involves risk.
Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its six wins this season, only falling short in its 34-24 win against FCS-level Grambling State, when the Tigers were favored by 27.5. Setting that letdown aside, this has been a team that has taken care of its business in Bryan Harsin’s first year as head coach.
That should continue this week, even if that means Nix needs to find some momentary discipline.
Auburn team total Over 27.5 (-115)
Even if setting aside the Tigers’ opening two wins against Akron and Alcorn State, games they won by a combined score of 122-10, Auburn has averaged 31.75 points in its last four wins.
Mississippi State has given up 34.75 points in its last four losses.
If Nix is going to rebound from his mistakes at Texas A&M, this time in front of a friendly home crowd robbed of the time to properly prepare for the game thanks to the noon kickoff, then that will most show itself here.
The Bulldogs have a decent run defense, but they rank only No. 79 in EPA allowed per pass play against, per cfb-graphs.com, which fits conveniently with Auburn’s having a passing game that is superior to its run game.
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